July Unemployment Rate

根据「July Unemployment Rate」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，4.3% 以压倒性的 3,700% 获胜概率主导市场；4.2% 以 3,250% 位居第二，4.4% 以 2,300% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $25，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• 4.3% (3,700%)：4.3% 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 3,700¢，显示出市场的高度确信。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• 4.2% (3,250%)：作为最可行的替代选项，4.2% 保持着 3,250% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 3,250¢。
• 4.4% (2,300%)：以 2,300% 的概率位列第三，市场对 4.4% 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

• 替代选项：包括 4.5% (2,150%)、4.6% (2,150%)，以及 4.1% (2,100%)。
• 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 ≤3.9% 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for July 2026.

The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.

The relevant data release is scheduled for August 7, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.

If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.