Greater Manchester Mayoral Election: Margin of Victory

根据「Greater Manchester Mayoral Election: Margin of Victory」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，Bev Craig 5–10% 以压倒性的 4,700% 获胜概率主导市场；Sian Astley <5% 以 4,350% 位居第二，Bev Craig <5% 以 2,350% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $77，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• Bev Craig 5–10% (4,700%)：Bev Craig 5–10% 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 4,700¢，显示出市场的高度确信。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• Sian Astley <5% (4,350%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Sian Astley <5% 保持着 4,350% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 4,350¢。
• Bev Craig <5% (2,350%)：以 2,350% 的概率位列第三，市场对 Bev Craig <5% 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

• 替代选项：包括 Bev Craig 10–15% (750%)、Bev Craig 15%+ (700%)，以及 Sian Astley 5%+ (650%)。
• 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 Other 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the final round of the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election.

The final round will be the first round if a candidate wins outright, or the runoff if no candidate wins outright.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).