GPT-5.6 released by...?

根据「GPT-5.6 released by...?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，July 31 以压倒性的 95.3% 获胜概率主导市场；June 30 以 27.8% 位居第二，June 23 以 5% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $997.4K，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• July 31 (95.3%)：July 31 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 95¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $213.3K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• June 30 (27.8%)：作为最可行的替代选项，June 30 保持着 27.8% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 28¢。
• June 23 (5%)：以 5% 的概率位列第三，市场对 June 23 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)

Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.

For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.

The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

人群共识与投机成交塑造了更宏观的预测市场，而我们的量化算法提供了数据驱动的反向视角。通过分析基本面信号、底层趋势与历史分布，我们的 AI 估值模型为每个结果独立测算出一个「公允价值」概率。

将该公允价值与当前交易价值对比，可揭示出重大背离——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表统计上被低估的结果，而负 EV 差则提示市场可能存在反应过度。

顶级 AI Alpha 与错误定价套利机会

根据最新一轮数据模型测算，以下几个关键合约存在显著偏离：

• 最被高估的结果：July 31 当前交易价为 95.3%，但我们的 AI 测算其公允价值仅为 90.3%，形成 -4.9% 的较大负 EV 差，表明人群可能过度炒作该结果、把溢价推得过高。
• 最佳价值标的（最高 EV）：我们的模型将 June 23 识别为盘面上最具价值的机会。市场仅给予其 5% 的交易概率，而我们 AI 的公允价值评估为 56.1%——形成可观的 +51.2% EV 差。
• 被忽视的黑马：其他值得注意的偏离包括 June 30（EV 差：+19.6%）。尽管我们的预测模型给予更强的统计支撑，这些长尾机会仍被实时订单簿大幅低估。