Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 26, 2026?
核心摘要
根据「Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 26, 2026?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。
目前，85–90 以压倒性的 9,765% 获胜概率主导市场；95–100 以 245% 位居第二，90–95 以 195% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $1.1K，反映出市场的高度关注。
竞争梯队拆解
为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：
🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者
- 85–90 (9,765%)：85–90 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 9,765¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $721 的成交量。
🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者
- 95–100 (245%)：作为最可行的替代选项，95–100 保持着 245% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 245¢。
- 90–95 (195%)：以 195% 的概率位列第三，市场对 90–95 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。
🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）
在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：
- 替代选项：包括 <80 (145%)、100+ (110%)，以及 80–85 (65%)。
- 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 <80 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。
完整订单簿与定价面板
下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解：
| 排名 | 预测结果 | 获胜概率 | 成交量 | 买入 Yes（成本） | 买入 No（成本） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 85–90 | 9765.0% | $721 | 9765¢ | -9665¢ |
| 2 | 95–100 | 245.0% | $102 | 245¢ | -145¢ |
| 3 | 90–95 | 195.0% | $69 | 195¢ | -95¢ |
| 4 | <80 | 145.0% | $69 | 145¢ | -45¢ |
| 5 | 100+ | 110.0% | $70 | 110¢ | -10¢ |
| 6 | 80–85 | 65.0% | $69 | 65¢ | 35¢ |
裁决规则
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
交易动态
以下是该事件的交易动态。
Jul 4, 2026
- 08:25 AMKKkkffssddjjllddffssghskkgg$1.00
Bought 1.018277 Yes for Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 26 be between 85 and 90? at 0.98
- 08:25 AMKKkkffssddjjlldd752ffsskkgg$1.00
Bought 1.018277 Yes for Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 26 be between 85 and 90? at 0.98
- 08:25 AMKKkkffssddjjllddf751fsskkgg$1.00
Bought 1.018277 Yes for Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 26 be between 85 and 90? at 0.98
- 08:25 AMSGsghsfhgsg$1.00
Bought 1.018277 Yes for Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 26 be between 85 and 90? at 0.98
- 08:25 AMJKjkdashahwf5asdhfffdsg$1.00
Bought 1.018277 Yes for Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 26 be between 85 and 90? at 0.98
- 08:25 AMKKkkffssddjjl5lddffsskkgg$1.00
Bought 1.018277 Yes for Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 26 be between 85 and 90? at 0.98
- 08:25 AMKKkkffssddjjllddffsskkggfg$1.00
Bought 1.018277 Yes for Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 26 be between 85 and 90? at 0.98
- 08:25 AMKFkfsdjldfskg$1.00
Bought 1.018277 Yes for Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 26 be between 85 and 90? at 0.98
- 08:25 AMKKkkffssddjjllddff752sskkgg$1.00
Bought 1.018277 Yes for Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 26 be between 85 and 90? at 0.98
- 08:25 AMKKkkffssddj7512772jllddffsskkgg$1.00
Bought 1.018277 Yes for Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 26 be between 85 and 90? at 0.98
- 02:42 AMRIrichyee$0.00
Sold 33 Yes for Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 26 be between 95 and 100? at 0
- 02:39 AMAHaHjCz$0.00
Sold 43.48 Yes for Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 26 be at least 100? at 0
常见问题
当前市场对「Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 26, 2026?」的共识是什么？
截至最新更新，85–90 以 9,765% 的获胜概率领跑，其次是 95–100（245%），以及 90–95（195%）。该市场总成交量已达 $1.1K，显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。