Portugal vs. Spain - More Markets

$130.7K Vol
2026年7月6日
Active
概率趋势
Spain 66.5%
Portugal 33.5%

核心摘要

根据「Portugal vs. Spain - More Markets」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，O/U 0.5 以压倒性的 9,350% 获胜概率主导市场；Spain O/U 0.5 以 8,100% 位居第二，2nd Half O/U 0.5 以 7,700% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $130.7K，反映出市场的高度关注。

竞争梯队拆解

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

  • O/U 0.5 (9,350%)：O/U 0.5 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 9,350¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $147 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

  • Spain O/U 0.5 (8,100%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Spain O/U 0.5 保持着 8,100% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 8,100¢。
  • 2nd Half O/U 0.5 (7,700%)：以 7,700% 的概率位列第三，市场对 2nd Half O/U 0.5 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

  • 替代选项：包括 O/U 1.5 (7,650%)、1st Half O/U 0.5 (7,050%)，以及 Portugal O/U 0.5 (6,600%)。
  • 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 Spain 2nd Half O/U 0.5 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

完整订单簿与定价面板

下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解：

排名预测结果获胜概率成交量买入 Yes（成本）买入 No（成本）
1O/U 0.59350.0%$1479350¢-9250¢
2Spain O/U 0.58100.0%—8100¢-8000¢
32nd Half O/U 0.57700.0%—7700¢-7600¢
4O/U 1.57650.0%$1067650¢-7550¢
51st Half O/U 0.57050.0%$677050¢-6950¢
6Portugal O/U 0.56600.0%$46600¢-6500¢
7Spain 2nd Half O/U 0.55950.0%—5950¢-5850¢
8Both Teams to Score5500.0%$9105500¢-5400¢
9Spain 1st Half O/U 0.55200.0%—5200¢-5100¢
10O/U 2.55150.0%$3.6K5150¢-5050¢
11Spain O/U 1.55050.0%$425050¢-4950¢
122nd Half O/U 1.54500.0%—4500¢-4400¢
13Portugal 2nd Half O/U 0.54350.0%—4350¢-4250¢
14Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.53700.0%$513700¢-3600¢
151st Half O/U 1.53450.0%—3450¢-3350¢
16Team to Advance3350.0%$113.9K3350¢-3250¢
17O/U 3.52950.0%$3232950¢-2850¢
18Portugal O/U 1.52900.0%$32900¢-2800¢
19Both Teams to Score in Second Half2850.0%$522850¢-2750¢
20Spain (-1.5)2650.0%$6502650¢-2550¢
21Will the Match Go to Extra Time?2650.0%$3562650¢-2550¢
22Spain 2nd Half O/U 1.52350.0%—2350¢-2250¢
23Spain O/U 2.52200.0%$102200¢-2100¢
24Both Teams to Score in First Half2050.0%$762050¢-1950¢
252nd Half O/U 2.51850.0%—1850¢-1750¢
26Spain 1st Half O/U 1.51600.0%—1600¢-1500¢
27Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?1550.0%$1751550¢-1450¢
28O/U 4.51450.0%$411450¢-1350¢
29Spain (-2.5)1150.0%$221150¢-1050¢
301st Half O/U 2.51150.0%$411150¢-1050¢
31Portugal 2nd Half O/U 1.51150.0%—1150¢-1050¢
32Portugal O/U 2.5900.0%—900¢-800¢
33Portugal (-1.5)800.0%$426800¢-700¢
34Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5800.0%—800¢-700¢
35O/U 5.5600.0%—600¢-500¢
36Spain (-4.5)550.0%—550¢-450¢
37Spain (-3.5)400.0%—400¢-300¢
38Portugal (-2.5)260.0%$141260¢-160¢
39O/U 6.5215.0%$167215¢-115¢
40O/U 7.5115.0%$3.7K115¢-15¢
41Portugal (-3.5)60.0%$3.0K60¢40¢
42Spain (-5.5)60.0%$50060¢40¢
43O/U 8.555.0%$62055¢45¢
44Portugal (-4.5)35.0%$60035¢65¢
45Portugal (-5.5)35.0%$98335¢65¢

裁决规则

More markets for the FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for July 6 at 3:00 PM ET.

交易动态

以下是该事件的交易动态。

Jul 3, 2026

  • 08:46 PM
    JOjotajaen
    $30.00

    Bought 45.454544 Spain for Portugal vs. Spain: Team to Advance at 0.66

  • 08:40 PM
    BTbtcmo07
    $4.96

    Bought 9.017856 Yes for Portugal vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score at 0.55

  • 08:35 PM
    0X0x7a014e1A19FAfA5F02662a8Bbf40d450Faaf0860-1782437588073
    $7.00

    Bought 20 Portugal for Portugal vs. Spain: Team to Advance at 0.35

  • 08:32 PM
    0X0x0c0AAa5E00FbA3525D6ce509DFCbaa3F0B43d2b7-1781983876905
    $12.00

    Bought 34.285713 Portugal for Portugal vs. Spain: Team to Advance at 0.35

  • 08:29 PM
    NEneotard
    $2.00

    Bought 3.030302 Spain for Portugal vs. Spain: Team to Advance at 0.66

  • 08:25 PM
    0X0xf1E76dB34c851c7b347c9D0f3BBe90D272306262-1782796581501
    $5.00

    Bought 14.285713 Portugal for Portugal vs. Spain: Team to Advance at 0.35

  • 08:18 PM
    0X0xa9f089Aa81cc79E2ff47c63ed1AEA79f22B12853-1768088463406
    $1.00

    Bought 3.571427 Yes for Portugal vs. Spain: Will the Match Go to Extra Time? at 0.28

  • 08:18 PM
    0X0xf53E2f4EFE50be6247b5Ee496A639EC91c660e1E-1782863031220
    $15.00

    Bought 22.72727 Spain for Portugal vs. Spain: Team to Advance at 0.66

  • 08:16 PM
    0X0xEAD9f590CdF1E1dDEB31e9Bf4de8034B33f127d2-1772739273681
    $50.00

    Bought 89.285713 Yes for Portugal vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score at 0.56

  • 08:11 PM
    0X0x33ac63be3A6D316e83F4b182B89C0Eb7B4ce3682-1767881025151
    $2.50

    Bought 3.787876 Spain for Portugal vs. Spain: Team to Advance at 0.66

  • 08:09 PM
    0X0x5711f4F5978a57F06683637B2432ca8F177E9329-1771525690406
    $1.00

    Bought 1.2987 Over for Portugal vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 at 0.77

  • 08:07 PM
    0X0xFd4f7f83f4Ddf65eF6698298045404Af59ACd671-1783087633319
    $5.00

    Bought 5.747123 Under for Portugal vs. Spain: O/U 4.5 at 0.87

常见问题

当前市场对「Portugal vs. Spain - More Markets」的共识是什么？

截至最新更新，O/U 0.5 以 9,350% 的获胜概率领跑，其次是 Spain O/U 0.5（8,100%），以及 2nd Half O/U 0.5（7,700%）。该市场总成交量已达 $130.7K，显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。

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