Paraguay vs. France - More Markets

$112.5K Vol
2026年7月5日
Active
概率趋势
France 91.5%
Paraguay 8.5%

核心摘要

根据「Paraguay vs. France - More Markets」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，O/U 0.5 以压倒性的 9,500% 获胜概率主导市场；France O/U 0.5 以 9,300% 位居第二，2nd Half O/U 0.5 以 8,200% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $112.5K，反映出市场的高度关注。

竞争梯队拆解

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

  • O/U 0.5 (9,500%)：O/U 0.5 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 9,500¢，显示出市场的高度确信。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

  • France O/U 0.5 (9,300%)：作为最可行的替代选项，France O/U 0.5 保持着 9,300% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 9,300¢。
  • 2nd Half O/U 0.5 (8,200%)：以 8,200% 的概率位列第三，市场对 2nd Half O/U 0.5 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

  • 替代选项：包括 O/U 1.5 (8,100%)、France O/U 1.5 (7,350%)，以及 1st Half O/U 0.5 (7,300%)。
  • 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 France 1st Half O/U 0.5 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

完整订单簿与定价面板

下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解：

排名预测结果获胜概率成交量买入 Yes（成本）买入 No（成本）
1O/U 0.59500.0%—9500¢-9400¢
2France O/U 0.59300.0%—9300¢-9200¢
32nd Half O/U 0.58200.0%—8200¢-8100¢
4O/U 1.58100.0%$1408100¢-8000¢
5France O/U 1.57350.0%$3357350¢-7250¢
61st Half O/U 0.57300.0%$667300¢-7200¢
7France 1st Half O/U 0.56850.0%—6850¢-6750¢
8France (-1.5)6050.0%$27.8K6050¢-5950¢
9O/U 2.55850.0%$1.3K5850¢-5750¢
102nd Half O/U 1.55150.0%—5150¢-5050¢
11France 2nd Half O/U 0.55100.0%—5100¢-5000¢
12France 2nd Half O/U 1.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
13Paraguay 1st Half O/U 1.54950.0%$354950¢-4850¢
14Paraguay 2nd Half O/U 0.54950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
15France O/U 2.54750.0%$4.8K4750¢-4650¢
16Paraguay 2nd Half O/U 1.54750.0%$304750¢-4650¢
17Paraguay O/U 0.54000.0%$1104000¢-3900¢
181st Half O/U 1.53750.0%$4.3K3750¢-3650¢
19Both Teams to Score3700.0%$8763700¢-3600¢
20France (-2.5)3650.0%$11.0K3650¢-3550¢
21O/U 3.53550.0%$11.1K3550¢-3450¢
22France 1st Half O/U 1.53100.0%—3100¢-3000¢
23Both Teams to Score in Second Half2500.0%$102500¢-2400¢
242nd Half O/U 2.52450.0%—2450¢-2350¢
25Paraguay 1st Half O/U 0.51950.0%—1950¢-1850¢
26O/U 4.51900.0%$4971900¢-1800¢
27France (-3.5)1850.0%$6321850¢-1750¢
281st Half O/U 2.51500.0%—1500¢-1400¢
29Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?1350.0%$2.5K1350¢-1250¢
30Both Teams to Score in First Half1300.0%$101300¢-1200¢
31Will the Match Go to Extra Time?1250.0%—1250¢-1150¢
32Paraguay O/U 1.5900.0%—900¢-800¢
33O/U 5.5850.0%—850¢-750¢
34Team to Advance850.0%$39.5K850¢-750¢
35France (-4.5)800.0%$20800¢-700¢
36O/U 6.5305.0%—305¢-205¢
37France (-5.5)295.0%—295¢-195¢
38Paraguay O/U 2.5255.0%$244255¢-155¢
39O/U 7.5150.0%$100150¢-50¢
40Paraguay (-1.5)90.0%$68990¢10¢
41O/U 8.555.0%$555¢45¢
42Paraguay (-2.5)50.0%$37050¢50¢
43Paraguay (-3.5)50.0%$80950¢50¢
44Paraguay (-4.5)30.0%$2.6K30¢70¢
45Paraguay (-5.5)30.0%$2.6K30¢70¢

裁决规则

More markets for the FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for July 4 at 5:00 PM ET.

交易动态

以下是该事件的交易动态。

Jul 1, 2026

  • 09:06 PM
    PEpeckishpom
    $9.28

    Bought 15.213112 France for Spread: France (-1.5) at 0.61

  • 09:02 PM
    ——
    $1.50

    Bought 16.666665 Paraguay for Paraguay vs. France: Team to Advance at 0.09

  • 09:01 PM
    TCtcrook4
    $1.56

    Sold 13 Yes for Paraguay vs. France: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? at 0.12

  • 09:01 PM
    TCtcrook4
    $1.92

    Sold 24 Paraguay for Paraguay vs. France: Team to Advance at 0.08

  • 08:57 PM
    DMDmon8or
    $2.76

    Bought 3 France for Paraguay vs. France: Team to Advance at 0.92

  • 08:49 PM
    DUdumber
    $50.00

    Bought 81.967212 France for Spread: France (-1.5) at 0.61

  • 08:46 PM
    ARArgonK55
    $2.00

    Bought 2.002 France for Spread: Paraguay (-5.5) at 1

  • 08:46 PM
    SWswisstony
    $150.00

    Bought 150 France for Spread: Paraguay (-5.5) at 1

  • 08:46 PM
    0X0x83D9a38fbF2265d1A0
    $1.00

    Bought 1.001 France for Spread: Paraguay (-5.5) at 1

  • 08:46 PM
    DMDmon8or
    $2.76

    Bought 3 France for Paraguay vs. France: Team to Advance at 0.92

  • 08:45 PM
    TCtcrook4
    $2.60

    Bought 13.684209 Yes for Paraguay vs. France: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? at 0.19

  • 08:45 PM
    WIWinRus
    $25.00

    Bought 59.523808 Under for Paraguay vs. France: O/U 2.5 at 0.42

常见问题

当前市场对「Paraguay vs. France - More Markets」的共识是什么？

截至最新更新，O/U 0.5 以 9,500% 的获胜概率领跑，其次是 France O/U 0.5（9,300%），以及 2nd Half O/U 0.5（8,200%）。该市场总成交量已达 $112.5K，显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。

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