Elon Musk # tweets July 14 - July 21, 2026?
核心摘要
根据「Elon Musk # tweets July 14 - July 21, 2026?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。
目前，180-199 以压倒性的 1,750% 获胜概率主导市场；200-219 以 1,450% 位居第二，220-239 以 1,250% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $57.8K，反映出市场的高度关注。
竞争梯队拆解
为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：
🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者
- 180-199 (1,750%)：180-199 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 1,750¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $3.5K 的成交量。
🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者
- 200-219 (1,450%)：作为最可行的替代选项，200-219 保持着 1,450% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 1,450¢。
- 220-239 (1,250%)：以 1,250% 的概率位列第三，市场对 220-239 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。
🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）
在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：
- 替代选项：包括 160-179 (1,150%)、260-279 (850%)，以及 140-159 (750%)。
- 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 240-259 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。
完整订单簿与定价面板
下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解：
| 排名 | 预测结果 | 获胜概率 | 成交量 | 买入 Yes（成本） | 买入 No（成本） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 180-199 | 1750.0% | $3.5K | 1750¢ | -1650¢ |
| 2 | 200-219 | 1450.0% | $1.1K | 1450¢ | -1350¢ |
| 3 | 220-239 | 1250.0% | $1.2K | 1250¢ | -1150¢ |
| 4 | 160-179 | 1150.0% | $1.1K | 1150¢ | -1050¢ |
| 5 | 260-279 | 850.0% | $1.4K | 850¢ | -750¢ |
| 6 | 140-159 | 750.0% | $935 | 750¢ | -650¢ |
| 7 | 240-259 | 750.0% | $1.6K | 750¢ | -650¢ |
| 8 | 120-139 | 550.0% | $942 | 550¢ | -450¢ |
| 9 | 280-299 | 550.0% | $1.8K | 550¢ | -450¢ |
| 10 | 100-119 | 265.0% | $1.5K | 265¢ | -165¢ |
| 11 | 300-319 | 230.0% | $301 | 230¢ | -130¢ |
| 12 | 320-339 | 165.0% | $953 | 165¢ | -65¢ |
| 13 | 340-359 | 150.0% | $846 | 150¢ | -50¢ |
| 14 | 80-99 | 80.0% | $441 | 80¢ | 20¢ |
| 15 | 360-379 | 80.0% | $938 | 80¢ | 20¢ |
| 16 | 60-79 | 25.0% | $2.6K | 25¢ | 75¢ |
| 17 | 380-399 | 25.0% | $583 | 25¢ | 75¢ |
| 18 | 400-419 | 25.0% | $1.8K | 25¢ | 75¢ |
| 19 | 420-439 | 15.0% | $1.5K | 15¢ | 85¢ |
| 20 | 440-459 | 15.0% | $6.8K | 15¢ | 85¢ |
| 21 | 500+ | 15.0% | $18.8K | 15¢ | 85¢ |
| 22 | <20 | 5.0% | $8.2K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 23 | 20-39 | 5.0% | $7.2K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 24 | 40-59 | 5.0% | $7.9K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 25 | 460-479 | 5.0% | $3.2K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 26 | 480-499 | 5.0% | $4.7K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
裁决规则
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 14 12:00 PM ET to July 21, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
交易动态
以下是该事件的交易动态。
Jul 11, 2026
- 08:09 PMOBoboltusovao$45.00
Bought 45 No for Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026? at 1
- 08:09 PM0X0xf231137AaA9A413d9C9429c49D6b43A6e31c5df9-1762202614276$2.00
Bought 11.764704 Yes for Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026? at 0.17
- 08:08 PM0X0xf231137AaA9A413d9C9429c49D6b43A6e31c5df9-1762202614276$2.00
Bought 14.285713 Yes for Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026? at 0.14
- 08:08 PM0X0xf231137AaA9A413d9C9429c49D6b43A6e31c5df9-1762202614276$2.00
Bought 15.384614 Yes for Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026? at 0.13
- 08:08 PM0X0xf231137AaA9A413d9C9429c49D6b43A6e31c5df9-1762202614276$2.00
Bought 22.222221 Yes for Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026? at 0.09
- 07:41 PM——$7.92
Bought 9 No for Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026? at 0.88
- 07:36 PMJUjustwant5$100.10
Bought 100.1 No for Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026? at 1
- 07:34 PMWFwfsxfwetrdsf$498.00
Sold 600 No for Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026? at 0.83
- 07:33 PMVIViscaElBarca$41.50
Sold 50 No for Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026? at 0.83
- 07:33 PMCRCrypRom$212.55
Bought 1328.42 Yes for Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026? at 0.16
- 07:31 PMVIViscaElBarca$43.50
Sold 50 No for Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026? at 0.87
- 07:31 PMCRCrypRom$33.22
Bought 276.81 Yes for Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026? at 0.12
常见问题
当前市场对「Elon Musk # tweets July 14 - July 21, 2026?」的共识是什么？
截至最新更新，180-199 以 1,750% 的获胜概率领跑，其次是 200-219（1,450%），以及 220-239（1,250%）。该市场总成交量已达 $57.8K，显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。