Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Falcons - More Markets
核心摘要
根据「Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Falcons - More Markets」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。
目前，Ends in Daytime 以压倒性的 9,000% 获胜概率主导市场；First Blood in Game 2? 以 9,000% 位居第二，Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? 以 9,000% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $759.6K，反映出市场的高度关注。
竞争梯队拆解
为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：
🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者
- Ends in Daytime (9,000%)：Ends in Daytime 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 9,000¢，显示出市场的高度确信。
🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者
- First Blood in Game 2? (9,000%)：作为最可行的替代选项，First Blood in Game 2? 保持着 9,000% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 9,000¢。
- Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? (9,000%)：以 9,000% 的概率位列第三，市场对 Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。
🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）
在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：
- 替代选项：包括 Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? (9,000%)、Both Teams Beat Roshan (1,000%)，以及 Any Player Ultra Kill (1,000%)。
- 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 Any Player Rampage 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。
完整订单簿与定价面板
下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解：
| 排名 | 预测结果 | 获胜概率 | 成交量 | 买入 Yes（成本） | 买入 No（成本） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ends in Daytime | 9000.0% | — | 9000¢ | -8900¢ |
| 2 | First Blood in Game 2? | 9000.0% | — | 9000¢ | -8900¢ |
| 3 | Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 9000.0% | — | 9000¢ | -8900¢ |
| 4 | Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? | 9000.0% | — | 9000¢ | -8900¢ |
| 5 | Both Teams Beat Roshan | 1000.0% | — | 1000¢ | -900¢ |
| 6 | Any Player Ultra Kill | 1000.0% | — | 1000¢ | -900¢ |
| 7 | Any Player Rampage | 1000.0% | — | 1000¢ | -900¢ |
| 8 | Both Teams Beat Roshan | 1000.0% | — | 1000¢ | -900¢ |
| 9 | Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 1000.0% | — | 1000¢ | -900¢ |
| 10 | Any Player Ultra Kill | 1000.0% | — | 1000¢ | -900¢ |
| 11 | Any Player Rampage | 1000.0% | — | 1000¢ | -900¢ |
| 12 | First Blood in Game 1? | 1000.0% | — | 1000¢ | -900¢ |
| 13 | Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 2? | 1000.0% | — | 1000¢ | -900¢ |
| 14 | Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 2? | 1000.0% | — | 1000¢ | -900¢ |
| 15 | Total Kills Over/Under 70.5 in Game 2? | 1000.0% | — | 1000¢ | -900¢ |
| 16 | Game 2 Winner | 5.0% | $465.1K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
裁决规则
More markets for the upcoming Dota 2 best-of-two series between Xtreme Gaming and Team Falcons, scheduled for July 11, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET.
交易动态
以下是该事件的交易动态。
Jul 11, 2026
- 08:23 AM0X0x077c97eA1fF2cd7d24a52f9Ed94b7B13966398AB-1771184749473$61.68
Bought 205.591211 Xtreme Gaming for Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner at 0.3
- 08:10 AM0X0x7126dC190577e55b9b8d23C701A0c8510f63BfcB-1781107189805$194.00
Bought 692.857141 Xtreme Gaming for Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner at 0.28
- 08:09 AMSUsuntori$13.33
Bought 47.61 Xtreme Gaming for Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner at 0.28
- 08:03 AMCOCONTOLODON$350.00
Bought 472.972969 Team Falcons for Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner at 0.74
- 08:02 AMYIyiluchanghong888$200.00
Bought 273.9726 Team Falcons for Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner at 0.73
- 07:48 AMPIpityke$3.00
Bought 4.109588 Team Falcons for Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner at 0.73
- 07:03 AM0X0xF26c9588EE4D708959B91AE9B6c7795cE3dB4b59-1773071265554$50.00
Bought 67.567565 Team Falcons for Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner at 0.74
- 06:44 AMQ1q136084$34.72
Bought 128.59 Xtreme Gaming for Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner at 0.27
- 06:44 AMNOnottop6896$110.00
Bought 407.407406 Xtreme Gaming for Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner at 0.27
- 06:41 AM0X0xFce862243C0612E0bac32a3897E002fa91Fe2686-1777287554404$10.00
Bought 13.513511 Team Falcons for Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner at 0.74
- 06:40 AM0X0x14cA946e75D59b8B7EbE21110512f7b885d78F43-1769608890569$99.09
Bought 367 Xtreme Gaming for Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner at 0.27
- 06:40 AM0X0xFce862243C0612E0bac32a3897E002fa91Fe2686-1777287554404$10.00
Bought 13.513511 Team Falcons for Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner at 0.74
常见问题
当前市场对「Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Falcons - More Markets」的共识是什么？
截至最新更新，Ends in Daytime 以 9,000% 的获胜概率领跑，其次是 First Blood in Game 2?（9,000%），以及 Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2?（9,000%）。该市场总成交量已达 $759.6K，显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。