Databricks vs Salesforce - higher valuation on June 30?

根据「Databricks vs Salesforce - higher valuation on June 30?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，Databricks 以压倒性的 59% 获胜概率主导市场；Salesforce 以 41% 位居第二。该市场的下注量已达 $2.2K，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• Databricks (59%)：Databricks 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 59¢，显示出市场的高度确信。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• Salesforce (41%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Salesforce 保持着 41% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 41¢。

This market will resolve to the listed company with the larger valuation, as measured by the final NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) and the official closing price for the public company, for June 30, 2026.

NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.

If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the latest data available.

If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.

If the private company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company’s public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day.

Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hours trading price published for the company’s primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company’s total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.

If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.

If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.

The resolution source for the private company is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.

If Databricks’ valuation is equal to Salesforce’s public market capitalization at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50.

Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

人群共识与投机成交塑造了更宏观的预测市场，而我们的量化算法提供了数据驱动的反向视角。通过分析基本面信号、底层趋势与历史分布，我们的 AI 估值模型为每个结果独立测算出一个「公允价值」概率。

将该公允价值与当前交易价值对比，可揭示出重大背离——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表统计上被低估的结果，而负 EV 差则提示市场可能存在反应过度。

顶级 AI Alpha 与错误定价套利机会

根据最新一轮数据模型测算，以下几个关键合约存在显著偏离：

• 最被高估的结果：Salesforce 当前交易价为 41%，但我们的 AI 测算其公允价值仅为 1%，形成 -40% 的较大负 EV 差，表明人群可能过度炒作该结果、把溢价推得过高。
• 最佳价值标的（最高 EV）：我们的模型将 Databricks 识别为盘面上最具价值的机会。市场仅给予其 59% 的交易概率，而我们 AI 的公允价值评估为 59.7%——形成可观的 +0.7% EV 差。