
ODI Series West Indies vs. New Zealand: West Indies vs New Zealand
核心摘要
根据「ODI Series West Indies vs. New Zealand: West Indies vs New Zealand」的最新预测市场数据,交易者已形成强烈共识。
目前,New Zealand 以压倒性的 60.5% 获胜概率主导市场;West Indies 以 39.5% 位居第二。该市场的下注量已达 $176.1K,反映出市场的高度关注。
竞争梯队拆解
为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置,可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队:
🥇 第一梯队:绝对领跑者
- New Zealand (60.5%):New Zealand 目前拥有最高概率,深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 61¢,显示出市场的高度确信。
🥈 第二梯队:主要挑战者
- West Indies (39.5%):作为最可行的替代选项,West Indies 保持着 39.5% 的成真概率,其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 40¢。
完整订单簿与定价面板
下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解:
| 排名 | 预测结果 | 获胜概率 | 成交量 | 买入 Yes(成本) | 买入 No(成本) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New Zealand | 60.5% | — | 61¢ | 40¢ |
| 2 | West Indies | 39.5% | — | 40¢ | 61¢ |
裁决规则
This market refers to the cricket match between West Indies and New Zealand scheduled for July 16 2026 in ODI Series West Indies vs. New Zealand.
This market resolves according to the finalized match result as published by https://www.espncricinfo.com/.
DLS/DRS, over-rate penalties, forfeit/walkover, or any other on-field ruling that leads the competition to declare a winner are treated as ordinary wins.
If the match ends tied and the playing conditions provide an on-field tiebreak (e.g., Super Over), the winner determined by that tiebreak will be used for resolution. If the match ends tied and no on-field tiebreak is used or available under the playing conditions (e.g., group-stage ODI with no Super Over), the market will resolve 50-50.
If the match is postponed/rescheduled, the market remains open until the listed fixture is completed. If the match is permanently canceled or abandoned or otherwise is completed without a winner, the market resolves 50-50.
The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
AI 估值分析:发现市场错误定价与 EV 差
人群共识与投机成交塑造了更宏观的预测市场,而我们的量化算法提供了数据驱动的反向视角。通过分析基本面信号、底层趋势与历史分布,我们的 AI 估值模型为每个结果独立测算出一个「公允价值」概率。
将该公允价值与当前交易价值对比,可揭示出重大背离——即期望值(EV)差。正 EV 差代表统计上被低估的结果,而负 EV 差则提示市场可能存在反应过度。
| Market | Trade Value | Fair Value | EV Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Zealand | 60.5% | 60.5% | 0.0% |
| West Indies | 39.5% | 39.5% | 0.0% |
交易动态
以下是该事件的交易动态。
Jul 16, 2026
- 08:10 PMEMemmy85$142.58
Sold 195.31 New Zealand for ODI Series West Indies vs. New Zealand: West Indies vs New Zealand at 0.73
- 08:09 PMCACasey259$1.00
Bought 1.315787 New Zealand for ODI Series West Indies vs. New Zealand: West Indies vs New Zealand at 0.76
- 08:09 PMSPspyman$77.29
Bought 101.697366 New Zealand for ODI Series West Indies vs. New Zealand: West Indies vs New Zealand at 0.76
- 08:08 PMBWbwave10$1.00
Bought 1.35135 New Zealand for ODI Series West Indies vs. New Zealand: West Indies vs New Zealand at 0.74
- 08:08 PMMImidwicket72$1,301.30
Bought 5005 West Indies for ODI Series West Indies vs. New Zealand: West Indies vs New Zealand at 0.26
- 08:07 PMMImidwicket72$389.35
Bought 1557.4 West Indies for ODI Series West Indies vs. New Zealand: West Indies vs New Zealand at 0.25
- 08:06 PMMImidwicket72$8.65
Bought 36.05 West Indies for ODI Series West Indies vs. New Zealand: West Indies vs New Zealand at 0.24
- 08:06 PMGRgrandculp$10.80
Bought 45 West Indies for ODI Series West Indies vs. New Zealand: West Indies vs New Zealand at 0.24
- 08:06 PMGRgrandculp$9.60
Bought 40 West Indies for ODI Series West Indies vs. New Zealand: West Indies vs New Zealand at 0.24
- 08:06 PM3838791873984189$24.00
Bought 100 West Indies for ODI Series West Indies vs. New Zealand: West Indies vs New Zealand at 0.24
- 08:06 PM3838791873984189$24.00
Bought 100 West Indies for ODI Series West Indies vs. New Zealand: West Indies vs New Zealand at 0.24
- 08:06 PMLIlifeisgamespower$6.94
Sold 30.16 West Indies for ODI Series West Indies vs. New Zealand: West Indies vs New Zealand at 0.23
正在押注该事件的鲸鱼钱包
常见问题
当前市场对「ODI Series West Indies vs. New Zealand: West Indies vs New Zealand」的共识是什么?
截至最新更新,New Zealand 以 60.5% 的获胜概率领跑,其次是 West Indies(39.5%)。该市场总成交量已达 $176.1K,显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。
AI 公允价值与实时市场交易价值有何不同?
实时市场交易价值反映的是公众情绪、订单簿动能与投机资金。我们的 AI 公允价值则由量化模型独立计算,剔除情绪炒作、专注底层数据。两者出现显著背离时即形成 EV 差,提示市场对某个结果可能存在错误定价。
