Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET

$572 Vol
2026年7月1日
Active
概率趋势
No trend data

核心摘要

根据「Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，Up 以压倒性的 7,150% 获胜概率主导市场；Down 以 2,850% 位居第二。该市场的下注量已达 $572，反映出市场的高度关注。

竞争梯队拆解

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

  • Up (7,150%)：Up 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 7,150¢，显示出市场的高度确信。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

  • Down (2,850%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Down 保持着 2,850% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 2,850¢。

完整订单簿与定价面板

下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解：

排名预测结果获胜概率成交量买入 Yes（成本）买入 No（成本）
1Up7150.0%—7150¢-7050¢
2Down2850.0%—2850¢-2750¢

裁决规则

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Bitcoin price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down".

The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd.

Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream BTC/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.

交易动态

以下是该事件的交易动态。

Jul 1, 2026

  • 05:14 AM
    PEPerfectly-Spherical-Gum-Boat
    $1.00

    Bought 1.960783 Down for Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET at 0.51

  • 05:14 AM
    HOhomaiss
    $2.50

    Bought 5 Up for Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET at 0.5

  • 05:14 AM
    0X0xd8793E129D4b0Ff79610408f04324d7D39633fF6-1781467922162
    $100.00

    Bought 200 Up for Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET at 0.5

  • 05:14 AM
    0X0xd8793E129D4b0Ff79610408f04324d7D39633fF6-1781467922162
    $100.00

    Bought 200 Up for Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET at 0.5

  • 05:14 AM
    ——
    $9.00

    Bought 18 Up for Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET at 0.5

  • 05:14 AM
    SYsynthesisAB
    $100.00

    Bought 196.07843 Down for Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET at 0.51

  • 05:14 AM
    YUyuyaaad
    $3.00

    Bought 5.882351 Down for Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET at 0.51

  • 05:14 AM
    ARArtigo
    $4.00

    Bought 7.843136 Down for Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET at 0.51

  • 05:14 AM
    0X0x3E36412B87cf77842E6bd780608ad750655D0f49-1778763637578
    $2.00

    Bought 4 Up for Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET at 0.5

  • 05:13 AM
    ——
    $20.00

    Bought 39.215685 Down for Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET at 0.51

  • 05:13 AM
    0X0x60144E4878F483172329afa132995660a52c5084-1772849210569
    $3.00

    Bought 6 Up for Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET at 0.5

  • 05:13 AM
    0X0x5DD559bB72F616591C10053519da7efD3D01B03E-1779910944120
    $1.00

    Bought 1.960783 Down for Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET at 0.51

正在押注该事件的鲸鱼钱包

561
0x5685…1094
Event PnL
+$0.00
Volume
$1,043.96
Positions
UpUp
W12
W1ningMan
Event PnL
+$0.00
Volume
$898.89
Positions
UpUp
SY3
synthesisAB
Event PnL
+$0.00
Volume
$736.62
Positions
DownDown
BO4
Bonereaper
Event PnL
+$0.00
Volume
$596.36
Positions
DownDownUp+1
WU5
wuhua2525
Event PnL
+$0.00
Volume
$565.63
Positions
DownDown
D86
0xd879…2162
Event PnL
+$0.00
Volume
$400.00
Positions
UpUp
F97
0xf9b7…a37c
Event PnL
+$0.00
Volume
$397.27
Positions
UpUp
568
0x568b…0b3b
Event PnL
+$0.00
Volume
$382.39
Positions
UpUp

常见问题

当前市场对「Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET」的共识是什么？

截至最新更新，Up 以 7,150% 的获胜概率领跑，其次是 Down（2,850%）。该市场总成交量已达 $572，显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。

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