Bitcoin Up or Down on July 14?

$59.6K Vol
2026年7月14日
Active
概率趋势
Up 53.5%
Down 46.5%

核心摘要

根据「Bitcoin Up or Down on July 14?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，Up 以压倒性的 5,150% 获胜概率主导市场；Down 以 4,850% 位居第二。该市场的下注量已达 $59.6K，反映出市场的高度关注。

竞争梯队拆解

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

  • Up (5,150%)：Up 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 5,150¢，显示出市场的高度确信。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

  • Down (4,850%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Down 保持着 4,850% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 4,850¢。

完整订单簿与定价面板

下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解：

排名预测结果获胜概率成交量买入 Yes（成本）买入 No（成本）
1Up5150.0%—5150¢-5050¢
2Down4850.0%—4850¢-4750¢

裁决规则

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 13 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jul 14 '26 12:00 ET candle.

This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 13 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jul 14 '26 12:00 ET candle.

If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50.

The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.

Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

交易动态

以下是该事件的交易动态。

Jul 13, 2026

  • 08:24 PM
    BUBullishbullshii
    $2.18

    Sold 6.06 Up for Bitcoin Up or Down on July 14? at 0.36

  • 08:20 PM
    OKOkanlol
    $153.56

    Sold 451.64 Up for Bitcoin Up or Down on July 14? at 0.34

  • 08:19 PM
    OKOkanlol
    $104.23

    Bought 297.8 Up for Bitcoin Up or Down on July 14? at 0.35

  • 08:17 PM
    MGmghkslz
    $1.84

    Bought 2.875 Down for Bitcoin Up or Down on July 14? at 0.64

  • 08:13 PM
    OKOkanlol
    $60.00

    Bought 153.846152 Up for Bitcoin Up or Down on July 14? at 0.39

  • 08:11 PM
    TRTrader120
    $1.00

    Bought 2.564101 Up for Bitcoin Up or Down on July 14? at 0.39

  • 08:05 PM
    0X0x93cdBFCc003D7791720D8656Cb3Dd3749dd38323-1764419908942
    $1.50

    Sold 2.59 Down for Bitcoin Up or Down on July 14? at 0.58

  • 08:05 PM
    VEvedaresearch.btc
    $3.30

    Sold 5.41 Down for Bitcoin Up or Down on July 14? at 0.61

  • 08:04 PM
    ——
    $1.00

    Bought 1.612902 Down for Bitcoin Up or Down on July 14? at 0.62

  • 07:59 PM
    VEvedaresearch.btc
    $0.30

    Sold 0.49 Down for Bitcoin Up or Down on July 14? at 0.62

  • 07:59 PM
    JSJSMongolia
    $2.47

    Bought 6.5 Up for Bitcoin Up or Down on July 14? at 0.38

  • 07:59 PM
    5F5f5a
    $11.16

    Sold 18 Down for Bitcoin Up or Down on July 14? at 0.62

正在押注该事件的鲸鱼钱包

FR1
fred4332
Event PnL
+$2,682.10
Volume
$25,206.32
Positions
Up
GO2
gobblewobble
Event PnL
-$1,428.99
Volume
$7,436.40
Positions
Down
CO3
coinman2
Event PnL
-$624.94
Volume
$5,796.15
Positions
Down
TR4
trulyalya1
Event PnL
-$348.98
Volume
$3,034.61
Positions
Down
CO5
coinfilippe
Event PnL
-$401.63
Volume
$2,714.31
Positions
Down
BA6
Babe
Event PnL
-$173.95
Volume
$1,656.65
Positions
Down
LU7
luckyandPluckyCar
Event PnL
-$187.80
Volume
$1,639.99
Positions
Down
ZZ8
Zzzz87
Event PnL
+$143.51
Volume
$1,470.99
Positions
Up

常见问题

当前市场对「Bitcoin Up or Down on July 14?」的共识是什么？

截至最新更新，Up 以 5,150% 的获胜概率领跑，其次是 Down（4,850%）。该市场总成交量已达 $59.6K，显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。

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