Bitcoin above ___ on July 8?

$302.9K Vol
2026年7月8日
Active
概率趋势
56,000 100.0%
52,000 100.0%
54,000 100.0%
50,000 100.0%
58,000 99.4%

核心摘要

根据「Bitcoin above ___ on July 8?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，70,000 以压倒性的 0.4% 获胜概率主导市场。该市场的下注量已达 $302.9K，反映出市场的高度关注。

竞争梯队拆解

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

  • 70,000 (0.4%)：70,000 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 0¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $27.5K 的成交量。

完整订单簿与定价面板

下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解：

排名预测结果获胜概率成交量买入 Yes（成本）买入 No（成本）
170,0000.4%$27.5K0¢100¢

裁决规则

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.

Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

AI 估值分析：发现市场错误定价与 EV 差

人群共识与投机成交塑造了更宏观的预测市场，而我们的量化算法提供了数据驱动的反向视角。通过分析基本面信号、底层趋势与历史分布，我们的 AI 估值模型为每个结果独立测算出一个「公允价值」概率。

将该公允价值与当前交易价值对比，可揭示出重大背离——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表统计上被低估的结果，而负 EV 差则提示市场可能存在反应过度。

顶级 AI Alpha 与错误定价套利机会

根据最新一轮数据模型测算，以下几个关键合约存在显著偏离：

  • 最佳价值标的（最高 EV）：我们的模型将 70,000 识别为盘面上最具价值的机会。市场仅给予其 0.4% 的交易概率，而我们 AI 的公允价值评估为 1.1%——形成可观的 +0.7% EV 差。
MarketTrade ValueFair ValueEV Gap
70,000Best EV0.4%1.1%+0.7%

交易动态

以下是该事件的交易动态。

Jul 6, 2026

  • 08:53 PM
    ——
    $19.76

    Bought 22.454544 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 8? at 0.88

  • 08:52 PM
    ANAngryPancake
    $88.00

    Bought 100 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 8? at 0.88

  • 08:50 PM
    IVIvAw
    $5.36

    Bought 178.571427 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 8? at 0.03

  • 08:35 PM
    THthompson182
    $4.40

    Bought 5 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 8? at 0.88

  • 08:34 PM
    MEMetrosax
    $2.00

    Bought 22.22 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 8? at 0.09

  • 08:34 PM
    MEMetrosax
    $2.79

    Bought 21.43 No for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 8? at 0.13

  • 08:27 PM
    0X0x2c97dD6385bF95b1e9759b85Ea77ebddc805Af9f-1773909265961
    $2.90

    Bought 5 No for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 8? at 0.58

  • 08:22 PM
    THthompson182
    $43.15

    Sold 44.48 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 8? at 0.97

  • 08:17 PM
    THthompson182
    $2.05

    Bought 5 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 8? at 0.41

  • 08:17 PM
    NEneutralwave23
    $4.60

    Bought 7.666665 No for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 8? at 0.6

  • 08:14 PM
    PLplanktonXD
    $0.88

    Sold 11 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 8? at 0.08

  • 08:13 PM
    PLplanktonXD
    $0.77

    Bought 11 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 8? at 0.07

正在押注该事件的鲸鱼钱包

061
0x06dc…0452
Event PnL
+$786.69
Volume
$46,528.75
Positions
YesYesNo+7
QQ2
qqqq88888
Event PnL
-$6.44
Volume
$12,888.00
Positions
No
463
4618
Event PnL
-$391.15
Volume
$10,466.21
Positions
No
MO4
morilun
Event PnL
-$3.33
Volume
$8,718.53
Positions
NoNo
LA5
latzs
Event PnL
-$36.19
Volume
$8,141.12
Positions
NoNoNo
TI6
Time42
Event PnL
+$31.06
Volume
$7,884.76
Positions
YesYesYes
CO7
coinfilippe
Event PnL
-$87.22
Volume
$7,020.49
Positions
NoYesNo+4
8D8
0x8d2D…2957
Event PnL
-$417.02
Volume
$6,319.68
Positions
No

常见问题

当前市场对「Bitcoin above ___ on July 8?」的共识是什么？

截至最新更新，70,000 以 0.4% 的获胜概率领跑。该市场总成交量已达 $302.9K，显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。

AI 公允价值与实时市场交易价值有何不同？

实时市场交易价值反映的是公众情绪、订单簿动能与投机资金。我们的 AI 公允价值则由量化模型独立计算，剔除情绪炒作、专注底层数据。两者出现显著背离时即形成 EV 差，提示市场对某个结果可能存在错误定价。

当前哪个结果的期望值（EV）最高？

最新一轮测算显示，70,000 是最显著的错误定价。市场对其隐含概率仅给到 0.4%，而我们的 AI 测算其公允价值为 1.1%——形成 +0.7% 的期望值差，是该市场中最具价值的标的。

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