Bitcoin above ___ on July 7?
核心摘要
根据「Bitcoin above ___ on July 7?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。
目前，48,000 以压倒性的 9,970% 获胜概率主导市场；50,000 以 9,900% 位居第二，52,000 以 9,860% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $61K，反映出市场的高度关注。
竞争梯队拆解
为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：
🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者
- 48,000 (9,970%)：48,000 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 9,970¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $419 的成交量。
🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者
- 50,000 (9,900%)：作为最可行的替代选项，50,000 保持着 9,900% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 9,900¢。
- 52,000 (9,860%)：以 9,860% 的概率位列第三，市场对 52,000 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。
🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）
在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：
- 替代选项：包括 54,000 (9,775%)、56,000 (9,470%)，以及 58,000 (8,350%)。
- 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 60,000 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。
完整订单簿与定价面板
下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解：
| 排名 | 预测结果 | 获胜概率 | 成交量 | 买入 Yes（成本） | 买入 No（成本） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48,000 | 9970.0% | $419 | 9970¢ | -9870¢ |
| 2 | 50,000 | 9900.0% | $5.6K | 9900¢ | -9800¢ |
| 3 | 52,000 | 9860.0% | $10.2K | 9860¢ | -9760¢ |
| 4 | 54,000 | 9775.0% | $7.0K | 9775¢ | -9675¢ |
| 5 | 56,000 | 9470.0% | $4.4K | 9470¢ | -9370¢ |
| 6 | 58,000 | 8350.0% | $7.8K | 8350¢ | -8250¢ |
| 7 | 60,000 | 6000.0% | $10.0K | 6000¢ | -5900¢ |
| 8 | 62,000 | 2950.0% | $1.7K | 2950¢ | -2850¢ |
| 9 | 64,000 | 850.0% | $2.0K | 850¢ | -750¢ |
| 10 | 66,000 | 370.0% | $10.8K | 370¢ | -270¢ |
| 11 | 68,000 | 105.0% | $1.1K | 105¢ | -5¢ |
裁决规则
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
交易动态
以下是该事件的交易动态。
Jul 1, 2026
- 09:03 PMROronyrocks$1.76
Sold 8 No for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on July 7? at 0.22
- 08:39 PMTOtomcohen$6.00
Bought 24 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 7? at 0.25
- 08:22 PMRARami.666$0.80
Sold 80.17 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 7? at 0.01
- 08:20 PMRARami.666$0.38
Sold 19.2 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 7? at 0.02
- 08:17 PM0X0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452$48.50
Bought 50 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on July 7? at 0.97
- 08:17 PM0X0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452$48.50
Bought 50 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on July 7? at 0.97
- 08:17 PM0X0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452$48.50
Bought 50 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on July 7? at 0.97
- 08:17 PM0X0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452$48.50
Bought 50 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on July 7? at 0.97
- 08:17 PM0X0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452$48.50
Bought 50 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on July 7? at 0.97
- 08:17 PM0X0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452$48.50
Bought 50 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on July 7? at 0.97
- 08:16 PM0X0x56f6bf6B793713C050Fd02147a45b563Bb4D8eFa$0.05
Bought 5 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 7? at 0.01
- 08:15 PM0X0x56f6bf6B793713C050Fd02147a45b563Bb4D8eFa$0.10
Bought 5 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 7? at 0.02
常见问题
当前市场对「Bitcoin above ___ on July 7?」的共识是什么？
截至最新更新，48,000 以 9,970% 的获胜概率领跑，其次是 50,000（9,900%），以及 52,000（9,860%）。该市场总成交量已达 $61K，显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。