Bitcoin above ___ on July 6?
核心摘要
根据「Bitcoin above ___ on July 6?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。
目前，52,000 以压倒性的 9,945% 获胜概率主导市场；50,000 以 9,930% 位居第二，54,000 以 9,930% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $57.6K，反映出市场的高度关注。
竞争梯队拆解
为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：
🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者
- 52,000 (9,945%)：52,000 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 9,945¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $9.6K 的成交量。
🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者
- 50,000 (9,930%)：作为最可行的替代选项，50,000 保持着 9,930% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 9,930¢。
- 54,000 (9,930%)：以 9,930% 的概率位列第三，市场对 54,000 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。
🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）
在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：
- 替代选项：包括 56,000 (9,900%)、58,000 (9,695%)，以及 60,000 (8,300%)。
- 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 62,000 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。
完整订单簿与定价面板
下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解：
| 排名 | 预测结果 | 获胜概率 | 成交量 | 买入 Yes（成本） | 买入 No（成本） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 52,000 | 9945.0% | $9.6K | 9945¢ | -9845¢ |
| 2 | 50,000 | 9930.0% | $4.9K | 9930¢ | -9830¢ |
| 3 | 54,000 | 9930.0% | $5.1K | 9930¢ | -9830¢ |
| 4 | 56,000 | 9900.0% | $9.1K | 9900¢ | -9800¢ |
| 5 | 58,000 | 9695.0% | $8.2K | 9695¢ | -9595¢ |
| 6 | 60,000 | 8300.0% | $4.5K | 8300¢ | -8200¢ |
| 7 | 62,000 | 4250.0% | $3.6K | 4250¢ | -4150¢ |
| 8 | 64,000 | 930.0% | $4.2K | 930¢ | -830¢ |
| 9 | 66,000 | 185.0% | $6.0K | 185¢ | -85¢ |
| 10 | 68,000 | 80.0% | $735 | 80¢ | 20¢ |
| 11 | 70,000 | 75.0% | $1.5K | 75¢ | 25¢ |
裁决规则
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
交易动态
以下是该事件的交易动态。
Jul 2, 2026
- 08:33 PM0X0x56f6bf6B793713C050Fd02147a45b563Bb4D8eFa$0.05
Bought 5 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on July 6? at 0.01
- 08:32 PM0X0x56f6bf6B793713C050Fd02147a45b563Bb4D8eFa$0.05
Bought 5 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 6? at 0.01
- 08:32 PM0X0x56f6bf6B793713C050Fd02147a45b563Bb4D8eFa$0.10
Bought 5 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 6? at 0.02
- 08:31 PM0X0x56f6bf6B793713C050Fd02147a45b563Bb4D8eFa$0.90
Bought 9 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 6? at 0.1
- 08:30 PM0X0x56f6bf6B793713C050Fd02147a45b563Bb4D8eFa$2.73
Bought 7 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 6? at 0.39
- 08:29 PM0X0x56f6bf6B793713C050Fd02147a45b563Bb4D8eFa$3.22
Bought 14 No for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 6? at 0.23
- 08:28 PM0X0x56f6bf6B793713C050Fd02147a45b563Bb4D8eFa$0.30
Bought 5 No for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on July 6? at 0.06
- 08:26 PMROronyrocks$3.00
Bought 15 No for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 6? at 0.2
- 08:22 PM0X0x56f6bf6B793713C050Fd02147a45b563Bb4D8eFa$0.10
Bought 5 No for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on July 6? at 0.02
- 08:20 PMEGEgenchango7347$1.00
Bought 2.702701 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 6? at 0.37
- 08:19 PM0X0x56f6bf6B793713C050Fd02147a45b563Bb4D8eFa$0.05
Bought 5 No for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on July 6? at 0.01
- 08:19 PM0X0x56f6bf6B793713C050Fd02147a45b563Bb4D8eFa$0.05
Bought 5 No for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on July 6? at 0.01
正在押注该事件的鲸鱼钱包
常见问题
当前市场对「Bitcoin above ___ on July 6?」的共识是什么？
截至最新更新，52,000 以 9,945% 的获胜概率领跑，其次是 50,000（9,930%），以及 54,000（9,930%）。该市场总成交量已达 $57.6K，显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。