Bitcoin above ___ on July 1, 8PM ET?

$1.3K Vol
2026年7月2日
Active
概率趋势
No trend data

核心摘要

根据「Bitcoin above ___ on July 1, 8PM ET?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，58,600 以压倒性的 9,950% 获胜概率主导市场；59,600 以 9,800% 位居第二，59,800 以 9,775% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $1.3K，反映出市场的高度关注。

竞争梯队拆解

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

  • 58,600 (9,950%)：58,600 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 9,950¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $120 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

  • 59,600 (9,800%)：作为最可行的替代选项，59,600 保持着 9,800% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 9,800¢。
  • 59,800 (9,775%)：以 9,775% 的概率位列第三，市场对 59,800 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

  • 替代选项：包括 59,400 (9,745%)、60,000 (8,350%)，以及 58,800 (5,050%)。
  • 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 59,000 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

完整订单簿与定价面板

下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解：

排名预测结果获胜概率成交量买入 Yes（成本）买入 No（成本）
158,6009950.0%$1209950¢-9850¢
259,6009800.0%—9800¢-9700¢
359,8009775.0%$339775¢-9675¢
459,4009745.0%$59745¢-9645¢
560,0008350.0%$318350¢-8250¢
658,8005050.0%$55050¢-4950¢
759,0005050.0%$55050¢-4950¢
859,2005050.0%$55050¢-4950¢
960,2001750.0%$371750¢-1650¢
1061,800255.0%$116255¢-155¢
1160,400250.0%$16250¢-150¢
1261,200250.0%$120250¢-150¢
1361,400250.0%$120250¢-150¢
1461,600250.0%$120250¢-150¢
1562,000250.0%$120250¢-150¢
1662,200250.0%$120250¢-150¢
1762,400250.0%$120250¢-150¢
1860,800150.0%$120150¢-50¢
1961,000150.0%$5150¢-50¢
2062,6005.0%$1205¢95¢

裁决规则

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Close" price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that ends on the time and date specified in the title is higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1h" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.

Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

交易动态

以下是该事件的交易动态。

Jul 1, 2026

  • 11:46 PM
    UNunnamed27
    $4.95

    Bought 5 No for Bitcoin above 60,400 on July 1, 8PM ET? at 0.99

  • 11:46 PM
    0X0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
    $1.98

    Bought 11 Yes for Bitcoin above 60,200 on July 1, 8PM ET? at 0.18

  • 11:42 PM
    DODombat
    $4.95

    Bought 5 Yes for Bitcoin above 59,400 on July 1, 8PM ET? at 0.99

  • 11:39 PM
    0X0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
    $1.20

    Bought 10 No for Bitcoin above 60,000 on July 1, 8PM ET? at 0.12

  • 11:39 PM
    0X0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
    $0.88

    Bought 11 Yes for Bitcoin above 60,400 on July 1, 8PM ET? at 0.08

  • 11:39 PM
    0X0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
    $1.68

    Bought 10.5 No for Bitcoin above 60,000 on July 1, 8PM ET? at 0.16

  • 11:38 PM
    0X0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
    $2.97

    Bought 11 Yes for Bitcoin above 60,200 on July 1, 8PM ET? at 0.27

  • 11:37 PM
    0X0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
    $2.32

    Bought 10.086955 No for Bitcoin above 60,000 on July 1, 8PM ET? at 0.23

  • 11:37 PM
    GEgebilaowang
    $115.00

    Bought 115 No for Bitcoin above 60,800 on July 1, 8PM ET? at 1

  • 11:37 PM
    GEgebilaowang
    $4.95

    Bought 5 No for Bitcoin above 60,800 on July 1, 8PM ET? at 0.99

  • 11:37 PM
    0X0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
    $2.53

    Bought 11 Yes for Bitcoin above 60,200 on July 1, 8PM ET? at 0.23

  • 11:37 PM
    0X0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
    $1.98

    Bought 11 Yes for Bitcoin above 60,200 on July 1, 8PM ET? at 0.18

正在押注该事件的鲸鱼钱包

GE1
gebilaowang
Event PnL
+$0.00
Volume
$1,176.51
Positions
NoNoNo+23
TE2
TENETENET
Event PnL
+$0.00
Volume
$1,099.99
Positions
YesYesYes+19
TR3
triklozoid
Event PnL
+$0.00
Volume
$160.81
Positions
YesYesYes+19
WO4
wondergull
Event PnL
+$0.00
Volume
$144.29
Positions
NoNoNo+3
B55
0xb55f…7609
Event PnL
+$0.00
Volume
$85.59
Positions
YesYesNo+3
RO6
rocketcrypto
Event PnL
+$0.00
Volume
$80.00
Positions
YesYesYes+29
UD7
udhusaq
Event PnL
+$0.00
Volume
$54.09
Positions
NoNoNo+3
RE8
RenatoSalinas
Event PnL
+$0.00
Volume
$33.25
Positions
NoNo

常见问题

当前市场对「Bitcoin above ___ on July 1, 8PM ET?」的共识是什么？

截至最新更新，58,600 以 9,950% 的获胜概率领跑，其次是 59,600（9,800%），以及 59,800（9,775%）。该市场总成交量已达 $1.3K，显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。

免费开始