Big Brother Season 28: Thursday First Eviction (July 9)

根据「Big Brother Season 28: Thursday First Eviction (July 9)」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，Ashley Trail 以压倒性的 4,950% 获胜概率主导市场；Barrett Pfeiffer 以 4,950% 位居第二，Chuk Anyanwu 以 4,950% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 —，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• Ashley Trail (4,950%)：Ashley Trail 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 4,950¢，显示出市场的高度确信。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• Barrett Pfeiffer (4,950%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Barrett Pfeiffer 保持着 4,950% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 4,950¢。
• Chuk Anyanwu (4,950%)：以 4,950% 的概率位列第三，市场对 Chuk Anyanwu 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

• 替代选项：包括 Drew Campbell (4,950%)、Haley Thogmartin (4,950%)，以及 Jason De Puy (4,950%)。
• 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 Kamu Kirk 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

This market will resolve according to the first individual who is evicted from Big Brother season 28 on any episode which airs on July 9, 2026, ET.

An eviction will qualify if the individual is removed from further competition within the structure of the competition.

Evictions will qualify regardless of if they are within a standard eviction cycle, as a part of a surprise vote or double eviction, or based on challenge performance, so long as they take place within the structure of the competition.

If two individuals are evicted at exactly the same time, this market will resolve based on the candidate whose listed first name comes first alphabetically.

Disqualification or voluntary departure will not count.

If an individual is eliminated but later returns, re-enters, or is reinstated, the original elimination will qualify. However, a declaration of elimination that is immediately and explicitly reversed or nullified during the same episode or broadcast segment (e.g., through a judge’s save, secret participation, public vote, or immunity twist) will not qualify. This market will stay open until the end of the relevant episode to confirm the finality of eviction.

This market will remain open until a qualifying eviction is confirmed. However, if no qualifying eviction airs on the official broadcast of Big Brother season 28 by July 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Eviction”.

The resolution source for this market will be the official broadcast of Big Brother season 28.