Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of July 20 above___?

根据「Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of July 20 above___?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，$240 以压倒性的 7,750% 获胜概率主导市场；$215 以 5,000% 位居第二，$220 以 5,000% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 —，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• $240 (7,750%)：$240 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 7,750¢，显示出市场的高度确信。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• $215 (5,000%)：作为最可行的替代选项，$215 保持着 5,000% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 5,000¢。
• $220 (5,000%)：以 5,000% 的概率位列第三，市场对 $220 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

• 替代选项：包括 $225 (5,000%)、$230 (5,000%)，以及 $235 (5,000%)。
• 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 $245 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday) is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No".

Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.

If Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) does not trade at all during the regular session of the final trading day of the week, the market will resolve 50-50.

For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used.

If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.

In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.

The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.AMZN%2FUSD.