2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?
核心摘要
根据「2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。
目前，Jean-Luc Mélenchon 以压倒性的 95% 获胜概率主导市场；Édouard Philippe 以 80% 位居第二，Nathalie Arthaud 以 78% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $115.9K，反映出市场的高度关注。
竞争梯队拆解
为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：
🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon (95%)：Jean-Luc Mélenchon 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 95¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $6.3K 的成交量。
🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者
- Édouard Philippe (80%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Édouard Philippe 保持着 80% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 80¢。
- Nathalie Arthaud (78%)：以 78% 的概率位列第三，市场对 Nathalie Arthaud 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。
🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）
在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：
- 替代选项：包括 Jordan Bardella (76%)、Bruno Retailleau (70.5%)，以及 Éric Zemmour (60.5%)。
- 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。
完整订单簿与定价面板
下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解：
| 排名 | 预测结果 | 获胜概率 | 成交量 | 买入 Yes（成本） | 买入 No（成本） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 95.0% | $6.3K | 95¢ | 5¢ |
| 2 | Édouard Philippe | 80.0% | $7.7K | 80¢ | 20¢ |
| 3 | Nathalie Arthaud | 78.0% | $2.4K | 78¢ | 22¢ |
| 4 | Jordan Bardella | 76.0% | $2.7K | 76¢ | 24¢ |
| 5 | Bruno Retailleau | 70.5% | $6.3K | 71¢ | 30¢ |
| 6 | Éric Zemmour | 60.5% | $2.2K | 61¢ | 40¢ |
| 7 | Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 57.5% | $459 | 57¢ | 43¢ |
| 8 | Fabien Roussel | 56.5% | $2.5K | 56¢ | 44¢ |
| 9 | David Lisnard | 47.5% | $4.7K | 48¢ | 53¢ |
| 10 | Gabriel Attal | 43.0% | $4.5K | 43¢ | 57¢ |
| 11 | Sarah Knafo | 40.5% | $2.3K | 41¢ | 60¢ |
| 12 | Dominique de Villepin | 34.5% | $2.8K | 35¢ | 66¢ |
| 13 | Raphaël Glucksmann | 34.0% | $4.2K | 34¢ | 66¢ |
| 14 | Marine Tondelier | 33.0% | $1.1K | 33¢ | 67¢ |
| 15 | François Hollande | 30.5% | $4.6K | 31¢ | 70¢ |
| 16 | François Asselineau | 24.0% | $2.2K | 24¢ | 76¢ |
| 17 | François Ruffin | 22.5% | $845 | 23¢ | 78¢ |
| 18 | Marine Le Pen | 21.5% | $4.1K | 22¢ | 79¢ |
| 19 | Juan Branco | 15.5% | $3.0K | 16¢ | 85¢ |
| 20 | Xavier Bertrand | 14.5% | $2.3K | 14¢ | 86¢ |
| 21 | Matthieu Pigasse | 12.5% | $9.8K | 13¢ | 88¢ |
| 22 | Bernard Cazeneuve | 11.0% | $350 | 11¢ | 89¢ |
| 23 | Gérald Darmanin | 10.4% | $3.1K | 10¢ | 90¢ |
| 24 | Ségolène Royal | 9.5% | $1.6K | 10¢ | 91¢ |
| 25 | François Bayrou | 9.4% | $4.1K | 9¢ | 91¢ |
| 26 | Jean Castex | 9.4% | $1.7K | 9¢ | 91¢ |
| 27 | Carole Delga | 8.5% | $1.7K | 9¢ | 92¢ |
| 28 | Michel-Edouard Leclerc | 8.5% | $1.2K | 9¢ | 92¢ |
| 29 | Philippe de Villiers | 8.5% | $2.4K | 9¢ | 92¢ |
| 30 | Manuel Bompard | 7.5% | $2.7K | 8¢ | 93¢ |
| 31 | Delphine Batho | 7.5% | $567 | 8¢ | 93¢ |
| 32 | Jérôme Guedj | 7.5% | $1.7K | 8¢ | 93¢ |
| 33 | Olivier Faure | 6.5% | $862 | 7¢ | 94¢ |
| 34 | Yaël Braun-Pivet | 6.3% | $478 | 6¢ | 94¢ |
| 35 | Jean-Michel Fauvergue | 6.0% | $1.5K | 6¢ | 94¢ |
| 36 | Karim Bouamrane | 6.0% | $2.4K | 6¢ | 94¢ |
| 37 | Bally Bagayoko | 5.8% | $1.2K | 6¢ | 94¢ |
| 38 | Clémentine Autain | 5.1% | $1.6K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 39 | Manuel Valls | 5.0% | $972 | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 40 | Sébastien Lecornu | 4.0% | $345 | 4¢ | 96¢ |
| 41 | Mathilde Panot | 3.6% | $257 | 4¢ | 96¢ |
| 42 | Teddy Riner | 3.4% | $352 | 3¢ | 97¢ |
| 43 | Élisabeth Borne | 2.8% | $913 | 3¢ | 97¢ |
| 44 | Laurent Wauquiez | 2.6% | $6.4K | 3¢ | 97¢ |
| 45 | Valérie Pécresse | 2.1% | $388 | 2¢ | 98¢ |
| 46 | Michel Barnier | 1.9% | $2.1K | 2¢ | 98¢ |
裁决规则
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
AI 估值分析：发现市场错误定价与 EV 差
人群共识与投机成交塑造了更宏观的预测市场，而我们的量化算法提供了数据驱动的反向视角。通过分析基本面信号、底层趋势与历史分布，我们的 AI 估值模型为每个结果独立测算出一个「公允价值」概率。
将该公允价值与当前交易价值对比，可揭示出重大背离——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表统计上被低估的结果，而负 EV 差则提示市场可能存在反应过度。
顶级 AI Alpha 与错误定价套利机会
根据最新一轮数据模型测算，以下几个关键合约存在显著偏离：
- 最被高估的结果：Sarah Knafo 当前交易价为 40.5%，但我们的 AI 测算其公允价值仅为 29.4%，形成 -11.1% 的较大负 EV 差，表明人群可能过度炒作该结果、把溢价推得过高。
- 最佳价值标的（最高 EV）：我们的模型将 Bally Bagayoko 识别为盘面上最具价值的机会。市场仅给予其 5.8% 的交易概率，而我们 AI 的公允价值评估为 33.7%——形成可观的 +27.9% EV 差。
- 被忽视的黑马：其他值得注意的偏离包括 Michel Barnier（EV 差：+16.4%）以及 Marine Tondelier（EV 差：+16%）。尽管我们的预测模型给予更强的统计支撑，这些长尾机会仍被实时订单簿大幅低估。
| Market | Trade Value | Fair Value | EV Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 95.0% | 87.9% | -7.1% |
| Édouard Philippe | 80.0% | 84.6% | +4.6% |
| Nathalie Arthaud | 78.0% | 80.8% | +2.7% |
| Jordan Bardella | 76.0% | 76.5% | +0.5% |
| Bruno Retailleau | 70.5% | 72.9% | +2.4% |
| Éric Zemmour | 60.5% | 60.8% | +0.3% |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 57.5% | 49.7% | -7.8% |
| Fabien Roussel | 56.5% | 53.2% | -3.3% |
| David Lisnard | 47.5% | 57.2% | +9.7% |
| Gabriel Attal | 43.0% | 43.2% | +0.2% |
| Sarah Knafo | 40.5% | 29.4% | -11.1% |
| Dominique de Villepin | 34.5% | 46.5% | +12.0% |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 34.0% | 44.0% | +10.0% |
| Marine Tondelier | 33.0% | 49.0% | +16.0% |
| François Hollande | 30.5% | 34.8% | +4.3% |
| François Asselineau | 24.0% | 26.9% | +2.9% |
| François Ruffin | 22.5% | 27.3% | +4.8% |
| Marine Le Pen | 21.5% | 20.0% | -1.5% |
| Juan Branco | 15.5% | 16.6% | +1.1% |
| Xavier Bertrand | 14.5% | 13.8% | -0.7% |
| Matthieu Pigasse | 12.5% | 14.6% | +2.1% |
| Bernard Cazeneuve | 11.0% | 1.0% | -10.0% |
| Gérald Darmanin | 10.4% | 7.6% | -2.9% |
| Ségolène Royal | 9.5% | 8.2% | -1.3% |
| François Bayrou | 9.4% | 3.0% | -6.5% |
| Jean Castex | 9.4% | 8.6% | -0.8% |
| Carole Delga | 8.5% | 15.3% | +6.7% |
| Michel-Edouard Leclerc | 8.5% | 10.4% | +1.9% |
| Philippe de Villiers | 8.5% | 9.4% | +0.9% |
| Manuel Bompard | 7.5% | 1.0% | -6.5% |
| Delphine Batho | 7.5% | 1.0% | -6.5% |
| Jérôme Guedj | 7.5% | 9.5% | +2.0% |
| Olivier Faure | 6.5% | 9.4% | +2.9% |
| Yaël Braun-Pivet | 6.3% | 8.5% | +2.2% |
| Jean-Michel Fauvergue | 6.0% | 4.3% | -1.7% |
| Karim Bouamrane | 6.0% | 5.6% | -0.4% |
| Bally BagayokoBest EV | 5.8% | 33.7% | +27.9% |
| Clémentine Autain | 5.1% | 4.8% | -0.3% |
| Manuel Valls | 5.0% | 4.7% | -0.3% |
| Sébastien Lecornu | 4.0% | 1.0% | -3.0% |
| Mathilde Panot | 3.6% | 1.0% | -2.6% |
| Teddy Riner | 3.4% | 3.9% | +0.5% |
| Élisabeth Borne | 2.8% | 1.0% | -1.8% |
| Laurent Wauquiez | 2.6% | 5.5% | +2.8% |
| Valérie Pécresse | 2.1% | 2.8% | +0.7% |
| Michel Barnier | 1.9% | 18.4% | +16.4% |
交易动态
以下是该事件的交易动态。
Jun 30, 2026
- 08:03 AMCOColala$2.08
Sold 2.97 No for Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? at 0.7
- 08:02 AMCOColala$1.30
Sold 4.47 Yes for Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? at 0.29
Jun 29, 2026
- 07:18 PMWFwfsxfwetrdsf$1.12
Sold 11.16 Yes for Will Gérald Darmanin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? at 0.1
- 07:17 PMSUsushilord$10.04
Bought 11.160711 No for Will Gérald Darmanin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? at 0.9
- 07:15 PMSUsushilord$5.02
Bought 5.17597 No for Will Mathilde Panot be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? at 0.97
- 07:14 PMSUsushilord$5.00
Bought 5.319133 No for Will Ségolène Royal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? at 0.94
- 07:13 PMSUsushilord$9.99
Bought 10.74113 No for Will Valérie Pécresse be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? at 0.93
- 06:59 PMZGzgmzgm$2.00
Bought 6.666665 Yes for Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? at 0.3
- 01:07 PMG.G.Hchen$53.00
Bought 100 Yes for Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? at 0.53
- 12:09 PMLULucieC.$93.01
Sold 106.91 No for Will Matthieu Pigasse be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? at 0.87
- 12:01 PM0X0x31d9BA7c9c7508694d6693779769E4167249Bb17-1780837940838$5.18
Bought 6.4 No for Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? at 0.81
- 10:28 AMDRDr.PNL$68.86
Sold 71.73 No for Will Mathilde Panot be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? at 0.96
正在押注该事件的鲸鱼钱包
常见问题
当前市场对「2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?」的共识是什么？
截至最新更新，Jean-Luc Mélenchon 以 95% 的获胜概率领跑，其次是 Édouard Philippe（80%），以及 Nathalie Arthaud（78%）。该市场总成交量已达 $115.9K，显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。
AI 公允价值与实时市场交易价值有何不同？
实时市场交易价值反映的是公众情绪、订单簿动能与投机资金。我们的 AI 公允价值则由量化模型独立计算，剔除情绪炒作、专注底层数据。两者出现显著背离时即形成 EV 差，提示市场对某个结果可能存在错误定价。
当前哪个结果的期望值（EV）最高？
最新一轮测算显示，Bally Bagayoko 是最显著的错误定价。市场对其隐含概率仅给到 5.8%，而我们的 AI 测算其公允价值为 33.7%——形成 +27.9% 的期望值差，是该市场中最具价值的标的。
市场共识是否对某个结果反应过度？
是的——数据显示市场对 Sarah Knafo 存在明显的反应过度。人群把其实时交易价值推高至 40.5%，但我们的公允价值评估认为其真实概率仅为 29.4%，形成 -11.1% 的负 EV 差，表明该合约被高估。
长尾数据中是否藏有高价值的黑马选项？
当然有。除了头部结果之外，我们的模型在排名靠后的选项中发现了被低估的潜力。Michel Barnier 拥有 +16.4% 的正 EV 差，Marine Tondelier 则为 +16%。尽管量化层面更有支撑，这些合约仍被实时订单簿低估。