2026 MLB Draft: Player to be Drafted 9th Overall

2026年7月13日
Active
概率趋势
Grady Emerson 49.0%
Roch Cholowsky 49.0%
Vahn Lackey 49.0%
Jackson Flora 49.0%
Jacob Lombard 49.0%

核心摘要

根据「2026 MLB Draft: Player to be Drafted 9th Overall」的最新预测市场数据,交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前,Cole Prosek 以压倒性的 4,950% 获胜概率主导市场;Andrew Williamson 以 4,950% 位居第二,Ty Head 以 4,950% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 —,反映出市场的高度关注。

竞争梯队拆解

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置,可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队:

🥇 第一梯队:绝对领跑者

  • Cole Prosek (4,950%):Cole Prosek 目前拥有最高概率,深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 4,950¢,显示出市场的高度确信。

🥈 第二梯队:主要挑战者

  • Andrew Williamson (4,950%):作为最可行的替代选项,Andrew Williamson 保持着 4,950% 的成真概率,其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 4,950¢。
  • Ty Head (4,950%):以 4,950% 的概率位列第三,市场对 Ty Head 持谨慎怀疑态度,除非势头转变,否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队:长尾选项(合计约 0%)

在前三名之外,还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低,但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲:

  • 替代选项:包括 Grady Emerson (4,900%)、Roch Cholowsky (4,900%),以及 Vahn Lackey (4,900%)。
  • 投机成交:尽管统计概率偏低,像 Jackson Flora 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

完整订单簿与定价面板

下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解:

排名预测结果获胜概率成交量买入 Yes(成本)买入 No(成本)
1Cole Prosek4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
2Andrew Williamson4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
3Ty Head4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
4Grady Emerson4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
5Roch Cholowsky4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
6Vahn Lackey4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
7Jackson Flora4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
8Jacob Lombard4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
9Eric Booth Jr.4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
10Drew Burress4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
11Gio Rojas4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
12Justin Lebron4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
13Tyler Bell4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
14Ryder Helfrick4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
15Derek Curiel4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
16Trevor Condon4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
17Chris Hacopian4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
18Cameron Flukey4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
19Jared Grindlinger4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
20Hunter Dietz4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
21Ace Reese4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
22AJ Gracia4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
23Liam Peterson4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
24Bo Lowrance4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
25Sawyer Strosnider4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
26Brody Bumila4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
27Carson Bolemon4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
28Tegan Kuhns4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
29Cole Carlon4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
30Daniel Jackson4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
31Aiden Robbins4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
32Zion Rose4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
33Logan Reddemann4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
34Aiden Ruiz4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
35Caden Sorrell4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
36Landon Thome4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
37Cade Townsend4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
38Mason Edwards4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
39Taj Marchand4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
40Gavin Grahovac4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
41James Clark4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
42Taylor Rabe4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
43Eric Becker4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
44Logan Hughes4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
45Coleman Borthwick4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
46Jack Radel4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
47Logan Schmidt4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
48Will Brick4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
49Chris Rembert4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
50Jarren Advincula4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
51Rocco Maniscalco4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
52Wes Mendes4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
53Tyler Spangler4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
54Archer Horn4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
55Connor Comeau4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
56Jensen Hirschkorn4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
57Ben Blair4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
58Jake Brown4900.0%4900¢-4800¢
59Kaden Waechter2750.0%2750¢-2650¢
60Chase Brunson2700.0%2700¢-2600¢

裁决规则

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player is drafted ninth overall in the 2026 MLB Draft. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If the 2026 MLB Draft is canceled, postponed or not completed by July 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

常见问题

当前市场对「2026 MLB Draft: Player to be Drafted 9th Overall」的共识是什么?

截至最新更新,Cole Prosek 以 4,950% 的获胜概率领跑,其次是 Andrew Williamson(4,950%),以及 Ty Head(4,950%)。该市场总成交量已达 —,显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。

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