2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

根据「2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，1st hottest 以压倒性的 5,750% 获胜概率主导市场；3rd hottest 以 4,150% 位居第二，2nd hottest 以 4,100% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 —，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• 1st hottest (5,750%)：1st hottest 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 5,750¢，显示出市场的高度确信。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• 3rd hottest (4,150%)：作为最可行的替代选项，3rd hottest 保持着 4,150% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 4,150¢。
• 2nd hottest (4,100%)：以 4,100% 的概率位列第三，市场对 2nd hottest 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

• 替代选项：包括 4th or lower (2,750%)。
• 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 4th or lower 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 versus the data points available for all other Julys on record.

Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.

If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.