Will Valve add Cobblestone to the map pool by...?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Will Valve add Cobblestone to the map pool by...?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, August 30 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 8.5% chance of winning. June 30 follows in second place at 2%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $66.8K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• August 30 (8.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, August 30 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 9¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $60.8K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• June 30 (2%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, June 30 maintains a 2% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 2¢.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Valve adds the map Cobblestone to the official map pool by the listed date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the listed market will resolve to "No".

If Cobblestone is added to the Active Duty pool, it must remain there continuously for at least 48 hours for the relevant market to resolve to "Yes". Temporary additions (e.g., for testing) that are reversed within 48 hours will not count. If Cobblestone is added after the deadline, the relevant market will resolve to "No", even if the addition was announced earlier.

For the purpose of this market, "Valve" refers to Valve Corporation, the developer and publisher of the Counter-Strike series.

For the purpose of this market, the "official map pool" refers to the Active Duty map group in Counter-Strike 2 (CS2), which consists of the maps eligible for both competitive matchmaking and professional tournaments.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Valve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies June 30 as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 2% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 50.1% — yielding an impressive +48.1% EV Gap.