Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Yes is dominating the market with an overwhelming 62% chance of winning. No follows in second place at 38%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $89K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• Yes (62%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Yes is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 62¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• No (38%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, No maintains a 38% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 38¢.

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome No currently trades at 38%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 34.4%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -3.6%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies Yes as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 62% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 65.6% — yielding an impressive +3.6% EV Gap.