Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM? (July 13 - July 18)

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM? (July 13 - July 18)”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, July 17 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 4,800% chance of winning. July 14 follows in second place at 4,650%, while July 16 sits in third with 4,600%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached —, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• July 17 (4,800%): Currently commanding the highest probability, July 17 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 4,800¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• July 14 (4,650%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, July 14 maintains a 4,650% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 4,650¢.
• July 16 (4,600%): Sitting in third place with a 4,600% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward July 16, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes July 18 (4,600%), July 13 (4,450%), and July 15 (4,450%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like July 18 are still attracting notable interest.

A "full lid" at the White House is an official announcement indicating that the President's public activities for the day have concluded and no further public events, appearances, or news are expected.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the White House Press Office calls a full lid for the specified date by 6:30 PM ET on that date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Only a full lid will qualify; lunch lids, intermissions, or any other press lid not explicitly listed as a full lid will not be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution.

This market will resolve according to the time listed by Roll Call of the first full lid called in the daily calendar (https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/calendar/). If Roll Call does not list a lid time or is for any reason unavailable, this market will resolve according to Forth (https://www.forth.news/whpool).