Next Grok Model: Text Arena Debut?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Next Grok Model: Text Arena Debut?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, 1480+ is dominating the market with an overwhelming 4,700% chance of winning. 1450+ follows in second place at 4,650%, while 1440+ sits in third with 4,600%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached —, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• 1480+ (4,700%): Currently commanding the highest probability, 1480+ is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 4,700¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• 1450+ (4,650%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, 1450+ maintains a 4,650% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 4,650¢.
• 1440+ (4,600%): Sitting in third place with a 4,600% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward 1440+, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes 1460+ (4,500%), and 1470+ (4,450%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like 1460+ are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next xAI Grok model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying model must be attributed to xAI and have “Grok” in its displayed model name, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, version numbers, dates, or descriptors. For example, grok-5-high, grok-4.5-thinking, or similar would qualify. Models not attributed to xAI, or xAI models whose displayed name does not include “Grok,” will not qualify.

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.

If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered.

A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".