Will Claude go down on __ days in August?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Will Claude go down on __ days in August?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, 8-10 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 48.5% chance of winning. 5-7 follows in second place at 47.8%, while 11-13 sits in third with 0.2%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $52.5K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• 8-10 (48.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, 8-10 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 49¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $14.4K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• 5-7 (47.8%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, 5-7 maintains a 47.8% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 48¢.
• 11-13 (0.2%): Sitting in third place with a 0.2% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward 11-13, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~3.6%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes 14+ (0.1%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like 14+ are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve according to the number of days in August 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.

Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.

A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.

This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome 5-7 currently trades at 47.8%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 25.9%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -21.9%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies 8-10 as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 48.5% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 52.2% — yielding an impressive +3.7% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include 11-13 (EV Gap: +1.9%) and 14+ (EV Gap: +1%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.