What will MrBeast say during his next YouTube video?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “What will MrBeast say during his next YouTube video?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Prize is dominating the market with an overwhelming 94.2% chance of winning. Dollar 5+ times follows in second place at 94%, while Sleep / Sleeping sits in third with 94%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $104.4K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• Prize (94.2%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Prize is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 94¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $1.3K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• Dollar 5+ times (94%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Dollar 5+ times maintains a 94% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 94¢.
• Sleep / Sleeping (94%): Sitting in third place with a 94% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward Sleep / Sleeping, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes Red Line (89%), Contestant (88%), and Feastables (84.5%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like Time 5+ times are still attracting notable interest.

MrBeast releases videos on https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mr Beast says the listed term during the next video he releases on YouTube. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

If no such video is posted by MrBeast by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the released video from (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast).

Note: This market refers to MrBeast's next video posted. Shorts, previews, or other videos released other than the referenced video will not be considered.

For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome Red Line currently trades at 89%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 48.2%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -40.8%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies Insane as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 34% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 43.8% — yielding an impressive +9.8% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include Sponsor / Sponsored / Sponsoring (EV Gap: +6.9%) and Karl (EV Gap: +5.6%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.