What will Idaho voters choose as their state gun?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “What will Idaho voters choose as their state gun?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Winchester Model 1894 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 4,250% chance of winning. Winchester Model 1873 follows in second place at 4,250%, while Colt Peacemaker sits in third with 4,250%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached —, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• Winchester Model 1894 (4,250%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Winchester Model 1894 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 4,250¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• Winchester Model 1873 (4,250%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Winchester Model 1873 maintains a 4,250% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 4,250¢.
• Colt Peacemaker (4,250%): Sitting in third place with a 4,250% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward Colt Peacemaker, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes M1 Garand (4,250%), Colt M1911 (4,250%), and Remington Model 700 (4,250%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like M1 Garand are still attracting notable interest.

The Idaho Official State Gun Question is an advisory ballot measure scheduled to appear in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would inform the state legislature as to the voters' choice for a state gun.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Idaho Official State Gun Question in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.

If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The named options will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more options are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the options. This market will resolve to the option that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Idaho, including the Idaho Secretary of State (https://sos.idaho.gov/).