What will be said during the fourth episode of House of the Dragon: Season 3?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “What will be said during the fourth episode of House of the Dragon: Season 3?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, King 10+ times is dominating the market with an overwhelming 7,400% chance of winning. Council follows in second place at 5,250%, while Raven sits in third with 5,200%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $54, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• King 10+ times (7,400%): Currently commanding the highest probability, King 10+ times is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 7,400¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• Council (5,250%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Council maintains a 5,250% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 5,250¢.
• Raven (5,200%): Sitting in third place with a 5,200% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward Raven, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes Revenge (5,100%), Bastard (5,100%), and Widow (5,100%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like Sword are still attracting notable interest.

Episode 4 of House of the Dragon Season 3 is scheduled to air on July 12, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if anyone says the listed term during the specified episode of House of the Dragon. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

If this episode of House of the Dragon has not been released in its entirety by July 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on what has been released up to that point. If no episode has been released by this time, or if the release is otherwise definitively cancelled, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the initial release of the named episode of House of the Dragon. Reruns, re-releases, or transcripts which differ from the initially released episode will not be considered.

For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf