US x China tariff agreement by December 31?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “US x China tariff agreement by December 31?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Yes is dominating the market with an overwhelming 85.5% chance of winning. No follows in second place at 14.5%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $61.4K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• Yes (85.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Yes is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 86¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• No (14.5%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, No maintains a 14.5% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 14¢.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.

The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.

Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome Yes currently trades at 85.5%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 81%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -4.5%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies No as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 14.5% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 19% — yielding an impressive +4.5% EV Gap.