U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?
Core Summary
According to the latest prediction market data for the query “U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.
Currently, July 31 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 21.3% chance of winning. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $52.5K, reflecting intense industry interest.
Breakdown of Competitive Tiers
To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:
🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader
- July 31 (21.3%): Currently commanding the highest probability, July 31 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 21¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $50.2K in volume.
Comprehensive Order Book & Pricing Dashboard
The table below outlines the full breakdown of contract prices, probabilities, and market depth for all listed outcomes in this prediction pool:
| Rank | Predicted Outcome | Win Probability | Trading Volume | Buy Yes (Cost) | Buy No (Cost) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | July 31 | 21.3% | $50.2K | 21¢ | 79¢ |
Result Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participate on the ground in an anti-cartel operation or conduct a kinetic strike directed against a cartel on foreign soil between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count.
Only direct U.S. participation, confirmed by the U.S. Government or by an overwhelming consensus of reporting, will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government; however, an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.
AI Valuation Analysis: Finding Market Mispricings & EV Gaps
While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.
Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.
Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities
Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:
- The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies July 31 as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 21.3% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 33.3% — yielding an impressive +12% EV Gap.
| Market | Trade Value | Fair Value | EV Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| July 31Best EV | 21.3% | 33.3% | +12.0% |
Trade Activities
Here is the trade activities for this event.
Jul 28, 2026
- 06:38 AMAVAviliol$29.99
Bought 48.363928 No for U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? at 0.62
- 05:21 AMB4b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.$0.23
Sold 1 Yes for U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? at 0.23
- 05:17 AMRORobSmithJr$0.12
Sold 1 Yes for U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? at 0.12
- 05:16 AMRORobSmithJr$906.62
Bought 1208.820973 Yes for U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? at 0.75
- 05:16 AM0X0x0e23d3ABF0f20741765cBe197Ffb6d6CC5c0bB35-1783187756883$0.42
Sold 3.54 Yes for U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? at 0.12
- 04:27 AMRORobSmithJr$0.02
Bought 0.04 No for U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? at 0.62
- 04:25 AMRORobSmithJr$5.70
Sold 15 Yes for U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? at 0.38
- 04:15 AMRORobSmithJr$113.82
Bought 599.07 Yes for U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? at 0.19
Jul 27, 2026
- 07:10 AM——$0.93
Bought 18.617961 Yes for U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? at 0.05
- 05:09 AMHOHolt1$3.95
Sold 4.16 No for U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? at 0.95
Jul 26, 2026
- 06:40 PMTHthesciencecat$4.80
Bought 5 No for U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? at 0.96
- 04:25 PMSTStarMaster$2.42
Bought 60.49 Yes for U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? at 0.04
Whales Wallets That Are Betting on This Event
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current market consensus on "U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?"?
As of the latest update, July 31 leads the field as the frontrunner with a 21.3% win probability. Total trading volume for this pool has reached $52.5K, indicating deep liquidity and high trader engagement.
How does the AI Fair Value differ from the live Market Trade Value?
The live Market Trade Value reflects public sentiment, order-book momentum and speculative capital. Our AI Fair Value is computed independently with quantitative models that strip out hype to focus on underlying data. When the two diverge, it creates an EV Gap, flagging where the market may be mispricing an outcome.
Which outcome represents the highest Expected Value (EV) right now?
Our latest run flags July 31 as the most significant mispricing. While the market trades it at a 21.3% implied probability, our AI calculates a Fair Value of 33.3% — an Expected Value gap of +12%, making it the premium value play in this pool.