University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - August 2026

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - August 2026”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, 49.0–51.9 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 5,000% chance of winning. 52.0–54.9 follows in second place at 5,000%, while 61.0–63.9 sits in third with 5,000%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached —, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• 49.0–51.9 (5,000%): Currently commanding the highest probability, 49.0–51.9 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 5,000¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• 52.0–54.9 (5,000%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, 52.0–54.9 maintains a 5,000% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 5,000¢.
• 61.0–63.9 (5,000%): Sitting in third place with a 5,000% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward 61.0–63.9, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes 64.0+ (5,000%), 55.0–57.9 (4,950%), and 58.0–60.9 (4,950%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like <49.0 are still attracting notable interest.

This is a market about the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) for August 2026, as reported by the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for August 2026, as reported in the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release.

The resolution source for this market will be the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release for August 2026 (https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/), currently scheduled to be released on August 28, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

Note: This market resolves based only on the final results for the specified month; preliminary results will not be considered.

Note: University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment is reported to one decimal point (e.g., 44.8). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

If the University of Michigan does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Surveys of Consumers report. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.