Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by...?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by...?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, December 31, 2027 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 41.5% chance of winning. June 30, 2027 follows in second place at 23%, while December 31, 2026 sits in third with 7.5%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $3.2M, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• December 31, 2027 (41.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, December 31, 2027 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 42¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $150.5K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• June 30, 2027 (23%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, June 30, 2027 maintains a 23% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 23¢.
• December 31, 2026 (7.5%): Sitting in third place with a 7.5% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward December 31, 2026, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.

Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.

The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome December 31, 2026 currently trades at 7.5%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 1%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -6.5%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies June 30, 2027 as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 23% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 23.6% — yielding an impressive +0.6% EV Gap.