UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 (QoQ)?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 (QoQ)?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, 0.2–0.3% is dominating the market with an overwhelming 50% chance of winning. 0.4–0.5% follows in second place at 49.5%, while 0.0–0.1% sits in third with 48.5%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $55, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• 0.2–0.3% (50%): Currently commanding the highest probability, 0.2–0.3% is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 50¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $13.7K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• 0.4–0.5% (49.5%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, 0.4–0.5% maintains a 49.5% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 50¢.
• 0.0–0.1% (48.5%): Sitting in third place with a 48.5% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward 0.0–0.1%, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes Negative (45.5%), 0.6–0.7% (43.5%), and 1.0%+ (40.5%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like 0.8–0.9% are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q2 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP Second quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for August 12, 2026.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases

If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome 0.0–0.1% currently trades at 48.5%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 1%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -47.5%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.