Kalmar FF vs. Hammarby IF

$98.5K Vol
Aug 16, 2026
Active
Probability Trend
Yes 100.0%
No 0.1%

Core Summary

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Kalmar FF vs. Hammarby IF”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Hammarby IF is dominating the market with an overwhelming 51.5% chance of winning. Kalmar FF follows in second place at 23.5%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $98.5K, reflecting intense industry interest.

Breakdown of Competitive Tiers

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

  • Hammarby IF (51.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Hammarby IF is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 52¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $88.7K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

  • Kalmar FF (23.5%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Kalmar FF maintains a 23.5% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 24¢.

Comprehensive Order Book & Pricing Dashboard

The table below outlines the full breakdown of contract prices, probabilities, and market depth for all listed outcomes in this prediction pool:

RankPredicted OutcomeWin ProbabilityTrading VolumeBuy Yes (Cost)Buy No (Cost)
1Hammarby IF51.5%$88.7K52¢49¢
2Kalmar FF23.5%$7.1K24¢77¢

Result Rules

This event is for the upcoming Allsvenskan game, scheduled for Sunday, August 16, 2026 between Kalmar FF and Hammarby IF.

AI Valuation Analysis: Finding Market Mispricings & EV Gaps

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

  • The Most Overvalued Outcome Hammarby IF currently trades at 51.5%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 27.8%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -23.7%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
MarketTrade ValueFair ValueEV Gap
Hammarby IF51.5%27.8%-23.7%
Kalmar FF23.5%6.8%-16.8%

Trade Activities

Here is the trade activities for this event.

Aug 16, 2026

  • 07:25 AM
    BOBodilix
    $1.00

    Bought 1.28205 No for Will Kalmar FF win on 2026-08-16? at 0.78

  • 07:17 AM
    0X0x9e3ed7b661a903fc97afcf49e0f014ebe869f882-1783406009396
    $57.08

    Bought 105.71 Yes for Will Hammarby IF win on 2026-08-16? at 0.54

  • 06:55 AM
    QUqueenshaniqua
    $1.06

    Bought 1.96296 Yes for Will Hammarby IF win on 2026-08-16? at 0.54

  • 06:55 AM
    ZIzishuai
    $99.90

    Bought 185 Yes for Will Hammarby IF win on 2026-08-16? at 0.54

  • 06:52 AM
    QUqueenshaniqua
    $1.06

    Bought 1.96296 Yes for Will Hammarby IF win on 2026-08-16? at 0.54

  • 06:52 AM
    ——
    $16.82

    Bought 31.148147 Yes for Will Hammarby IF win on 2026-08-16? at 0.54

  • 06:52 AM
    ——
    $1,312.18

    Bought 2475.811319 Yes for Will Hammarby IF win on 2026-08-16? at 0.53

  • 06:52 AM
    FOFollower2
    $9.79

    Bought 18.129628 Yes for Will Hammarby IF win on 2026-08-16? at 0.54

  • 05:52 AM
    FIFidubitBot
    $5.46

    Sold 10.5 Yes for Will Hammarby IF win on 2026-08-16? at 0.52

  • 05:44 AM
    0X0x140e74Fd05b60d5e983155Bd92b91215aAA9cF85-1776996717869
    $94.00

    Bought 123.684208 No for Will Kalmar FF vs. Hammarby IF end in a draw? at 0.76

  • 04:56 AM
    0X0x99933B70c197Dd24b59120296d3746F2b0b2C2AF-1776877718503
    $1.00

    Bought 1.315787 No for Will Kalmar FF vs. Hammarby IF end in a draw? at 0.76

  • 04:51 AM
    0X0xf08b982656AEa6DBa1D13c49cC88db4f6C047E76-1774133165163
    $5.00

    Bought 9.433961 Yes for Will Hammarby IF win on 2026-08-16? at 0.53

Whales Wallets That Are Betting on This Event

LA1
laozishudaosan
Event PnL
-$432.85
Volume
$29,430.64
Positions
No
JU2
justbusiness1
Event PnL
+$318.86
Volume
$12,378.90
Positions
Yes
RA3
rabbitfoot1
Event PnL
-$60.84
Volume
$12,169.95
Positions
Yes
C34
0xc3ed…9f79
Event PnL
-$48.60
Volume
$9,720.00
Positions
No
SW5
swisstony
Event PnL
-$21.29
Volume
$7,596.09
Positions
YesNoYes
GO6
GoalLineGhost
Event PnL
-$1,996.27
Volume
$5,765.38
Positions
NoYesNo
4F7
0x4f2
Event PnL
-$330.32
Volume
$4,895.47
Positions
NoNoYes
WE8
WeBuyHighWeSelllow
Event PnL
+$23.32
Volume
$4,664.72
Positions
Yes

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current market consensus on "Kalmar FF vs. Hammarby IF"?

As of the latest update, Hammarby IF leads the field as the frontrunner with a 51.5% win probability, followed by Kalmar FF at 23.5%. Total trading volume for this pool has reached $98.5K, indicating deep liquidity and high trader engagement.

How does the AI Fair Value differ from the live Market Trade Value?

The live Market Trade Value reflects public sentiment, order-book momentum and speculative capital. Our AI Fair Value is computed independently with quantitative models that strip out hype to focus on underlying data. When the two diverge, it creates an EV Gap, flagging where the market may be mispricing an outcome.

Is the market consensus overreacting to any specific outcome?

Yes — our data suggests a notable overreaction around Hammarby IF. The crowd has pushed its live Trade Value up to 51.5%, yet our Fair Value assessment puts its real likelihood at just 27.8%, a negative EV Gap of -23.7% that signals the contract is overpriced.

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