Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, August 31 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 1.2% chance of winning. August 15 follows in second place at 0.1%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $21.5M, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• August 31 (1.2%): Currently commanding the highest probability, August 31 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 1¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $14.3M in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• August 15 (0.1%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, August 15 maintains a 0.1% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 0¢.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and August 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.

Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for August 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.

In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome August 31 currently trades at 1.2%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 1%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -0.1%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies August 15 as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 0.1% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 1% — yielding an impressive +1% EV Gap.