FK Zenit vs. FK Rodina Moskva

$78.8K Vol
Aug 9, 2026
Resolved
Probability Trend
No 100.0%
Yes 0.1%

Core Summary

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “FK Zenit vs. FK Rodina Moskva”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, FK Rodina Moskva is dominating the market with an overwhelming 4.5% chance of winning. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $78.8K, reflecting intense industry interest.

Breakdown of Competitive Tiers

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

  • FK Rodina Moskva (4.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, FK Rodina Moskva is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 5¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $21.5K in volume.

Comprehensive Order Book & Pricing Dashboard

The table below outlines the full breakdown of contract prices, probabilities, and market depth for all listed outcomes in this prediction pool:

RankPredicted OutcomeWin ProbabilityTrading VolumeBuy Yes (Cost)Buy No (Cost)
1FK Rodina Moskva4.5%$21.5K96¢

Result Rules

This event is for the upcoming Russian Premier League game, scheduled for Sunday, August 9, 2026 between FK Zenit and FK Rodina Moskva.

AI Valuation Analysis: Finding Market Mispricings & EV Gaps

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

  • The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies FK Rodina Moskva as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 4.5% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 11.7% — yielding an impressive +7.2% EV Gap.
MarketTrade ValueFair ValueEV Gap
FK Rodina MoskvaBest EV4.5%11.7%+7.2%

Trade Activities

Here is the trade activities for this event.

Aug 9, 2026

  • 07:40 AM
    RUrussell.b
    $6.88

    Bought 8.094113 Yes for Will FK Zenit win on 2026-08-09? at 0.85

  • 07:32 AM
    MAMagnoos777
    $5.00

    Bought 5.882346 Yes for Will FK Zenit win on 2026-08-09? at 0.85

  • 07:31 AM
    $100.00

    Bought 117.647053 Yes for Will FK Zenit win on 2026-08-09? at 0.85

  • 06:54 AM
    FOFoolMan
    $6.14

    Bought 38.375 No for Will FK Zenit win on 2026-08-09? at 0.16

  • 06:33 AM
    STstrong-self
    $5,648.79

    Bought 6568.36 Yes for Will FK Zenit win on 2026-08-09? at 0.86

  • 06:33 AM
    RARaccoon770
    $532.80

    Bought 555 No for Will FK Rodina Moskva win on 2026-08-09? at 0.96

  • 06:31 AM
    $1.00

    Bought 6.666665 No for Will FK Zenit win on 2026-08-09? at 0.15

  • 06:31 AM
    STstrong-self
    $1,456.05

    Bought 1713 Yes for Will FK Zenit win on 2026-08-09? at 0.85

  • 06:31 AM
    ODOddstorm
    $395.60

    Bought 460 Yes for Will FK Zenit win on 2026-08-09? at 0.86

  • 06:30 AM
    STstrong-self
    $2,134.35

    Bought 2511 Yes for Will FK Zenit win on 2026-08-09? at 0.85

  • 06:30 AM
    $1.00

    Bought 6.25 No for Will FK Zenit win on 2026-08-09? at 0.16

  • 06:30 AM
    STstrong-self
    $5,819.34

    Bought 6846.28 Yes for Will FK Zenit win on 2026-08-09? at 0.85

Whales Wallets That Are Betting on This Event

991
0x99F0…6382
Event PnL
+$89.46
Volume
$24,209.24
Positions
NoYes
PA2
palmdo
Event PnL
-$17,293.68
Volume
$18,213.46
Positions
No
ST3
strong-self
Event PnL
-$242.13
Volume
$17,044.28
Positions
Yes
BB4
0xbb29…947a
Event PnL
-$81.82
Volume
$13,845.66
Positions
NoYesYes
UP5
UpTheBlues
Event PnL
+$72.06
Volume
$10,146.76
Positions
YesNoNo
MR6
mr-sarkozy
Event PnL
+$69.29
Volume
$5,377.14
Positions
NoNo
EM7
emacron
Event PnL
+$3,502.51
Volume
$4,294.95
Positions
NoNoNo
CO8
comon119
Event PnL
-$87.53
Volume
$3,999.93
Positions
No

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current market consensus on "FK Zenit vs. FK Rodina Moskva"?

As of the latest update, FK Rodina Moskva leads the field as the frontrunner with a 4.5% win probability. Total trading volume for this pool has reached $78.8K, indicating deep liquidity and high trader engagement.

How does the AI Fair Value differ from the live Market Trade Value?

The live Market Trade Value reflects public sentiment, order-book momentum and speculative capital. Our AI Fair Value is computed independently with quantitative models that strip out hype to focus on underlying data. When the two diverge, it creates an EV Gap, flagging where the market may be mispricing an outcome.

Which outcome represents the highest Expected Value (EV) right now?

Our latest run flags FK Rodina Moskva as the most significant mispricing. While the market trades it at a 4.5% implied probability, our AI calculates a Fair Value of 11.7% — an Expected Value gap of +7.2%, making it the premium value play in this pool.

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