Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by...?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by...?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, October 31, 2026 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 27.5% chance of winning. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $56.9K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• October 31, 2026 (27.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, October 31, 2026 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 28¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $71 in volume.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rodrigo Paz ceases to be President of Bolivia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Rodrigo Paz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market's timeframe, it will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Rodrigo Paz and the government of Bolivia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies October 31, 2026 as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 27.5% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 45.3% — yielding an impressive +17.8% EV Gap.