Precipitation in Hong Kong in July?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Precipitation in Hong Kong in July?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, <400mm is dominating the market with an overwhelming 5,000% chance of winning. 400-425mm follows in second place at 5,000%, while 425-450mm sits in third with 5,000%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached —, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• <400mm (5,000%): Currently commanding the highest probability, <400mm is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 5,000¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• 400-425mm (5,000%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, 400-425mm maintains a 5,000% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 5,000¢.
• 425-450mm (5,000%): Sitting in third place with a 5,000% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward 425-450mm, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes 450-475mm (5,000%), 475-500mm (5,000%), and 500-525mm (5,000%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like 525-550mm are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between July 1 and July 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.

The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in July 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.

If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.

If the relevant data is not available by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.