Total commitments for the Credible public sale on MetaDAO

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Total commitments for the Credible public sale on MetaDAO”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, >2M is dominating the market with an overwhelming 9,480% chance of winning. >4M follows in second place at 9,200%, while >6M sits in third with 8,950%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $3.9K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• >2M (9,480%): Currently commanding the highest probability, >2M is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 9,480¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $110 in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• >4M (9,200%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, >4M maintains a 9,200% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 9,200¢.
• >6M (8,950%): Sitting in third place with a 8,950% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward >6M, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes >8M (8,850%), >10M (8,000%), and >12M (7,550%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like >16M are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if total commitments for the Credible raise on MetaDAO exceeds the number specified in the title before the raise closes. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the “committed” figure displayed on the official Credible sale page at https://www.metadao.fi/projects/credible/fundraise. If the displayed figure reaches the threshold at any point before August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of subsequent refunds or cancellations. If the sale is on hold and no commitment total is verifiable by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if the raise event is otherwise cancelled or rescheduled to a time past that date, this market resolves to "No". If requisite information for this market’s resolution becomes permanently unavailable within this market’s timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.

If the sale begins and is extended before the official closing time, commitments made during the extended period will count toward resolution.