Philippines, Cavite 4th Congressional District Special Election Winner

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Philippines, Cavite 4th Congressional District Special Election Winner”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Jennifer Austria Barzaga is dominating the market with an overwhelming 8,750% chance of winning. Raul Rex Del Rosario Mangubat follows in second place at 850%, while Jacinto Bautista Frani Jr. sits in third with 370%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $1.2K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• Jennifer Austria Barzaga (8,750%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Jennifer Austria Barzaga is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 8,750¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $678 in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• Raul Rex Del Rosario Mangubat (850%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Raul Rex Del Rosario Mangubat maintains a 850% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 850¢.
• Jacinto Bautista Frani Jr. (370%): Sitting in third place with a 370% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward Jacinto Bautista Frani Jr., treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes Leysander Aguilar Ordenes (160%), and Marvin Opamin Dupal-ag (110%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like Leysander Aguilar Ordenes are still attracting notable interest.

A special election is currently scheduled for August 29, 2026 to fill the 4th congressional district seat of Cavite in the Philippine House of Representatives.

This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.

This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.comelec.gov.ph/.