Trump approval Up or Down this week?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Trump approval Up or Down this week?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Down is dominating the market with an overwhelming 5,200% chance of winning. Up follows in second place at 4,800%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $75, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• Down (5,200%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Down is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 5,200¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• Up (4,800%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Up maintains a 4,800% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 4,800¢.

This market will resolve to "Up" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on July 31, 2026, than on July 24, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on July 24, 2026, than on July 31, 2026.

This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date.

The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date.

If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.

If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.

This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.

The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.