CA Grau vs. CD Comerciantes Unidos
Core Summary
According to the latest prediction market data for the query “CA Grau vs. CD Comerciantes Unidos”, traders have formed a strong consensus.
Currently, CA Grau is dominating the market with an overwhelming 52% chance of winning. Draw (CA Grau vs. CD Comerciantes Unidos) follows in second place at 29%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $70.9K, reflecting intense industry interest.
Breakdown of Competitive Tiers
To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:
🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader
- CA Grau (52%): Currently commanding the highest probability, CA Grau is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 52¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $51.1K in volume.
🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers
- Draw (CA Grau vs. CD Comerciantes Unidos) (29%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Draw (CA Grau vs. CD Comerciantes Unidos) maintains a 29% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 29¢.
Comprehensive Order Book & Pricing Dashboard
The table below outlines the full breakdown of contract prices, probabilities, and market depth for all listed outcomes in this prediction pool:
| Rank | Predicted Outcome | Win Probability | Trading Volume | Buy Yes (Cost) | Buy No (Cost) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CA Grau | 52.0% | $51.1K | 52¢ | 48¢ |
| 2 | Draw (CA Grau vs. CD Comerciantes Unidos) | 29.0% | $13.7K | 29¢ | 71¢ |
Result Rules
This event is for the upcoming Peru Liga 1 game, scheduled for Friday, August 14, 2026 between CA Grau and CD Comerciantes Unidos.
AI Valuation Analysis: Finding Market Mispricings & EV Gaps
While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.
Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.
Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities
Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:
- The Most Overvalued Outcome Draw (CA Grau vs. CD Comerciantes Unidos) currently trades at 29%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 24.6%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -4.4%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
| Market | Trade Value | Fair Value | EV Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| CA Grau | 52.0% | 49.6% | -2.4% |
| Draw (CA Grau vs. CD Comerciantes Unidos) | 29.0% | 24.6% | -4.4% |
Trade Activities
Here is the trade activities for this event.
Aug 14, 2026
- 07:59 PM0X0x9e3ed7b661a903fc97afcf49e0f014ebe869f882-1783406009396$47.61
Bought 148.78125 Yes for Will CA Grau vs. CD Comerciantes Unidos end in a draw? at 0.32
- 07:58 PM-G-Guapo--$29.50
Bought 50 No for Will CA Grau win on 2026-08-14? at 0.59
- 07:56 PMRORoma33$4.94
Sold 18.28 Yes for Will CD Comerciantes Unidos win on 2026-08-14? at 0.27
- 07:56 PMKAkakapipi2026$1.41
Bought 5.035713 Yes for Will CD Comerciantes Unidos win on 2026-08-14? at 0.28
- 07:53 PM——$3.00
Bought 5.084743 No for Will CA Grau win on 2026-08-14? at 0.59
- 07:47 PM——$2.85
Bought 4.75 No for Will CA Grau win on 2026-08-14? at 0.6
- 07:47 PM——$9.50
Bought 15.833332 No for Will CA Grau win on 2026-08-14? at 0.6
- 07:47 PMRORoma33$3.07
Bought 7.309522 Yes for Will CA Grau win on 2026-08-14? at 0.42
- 07:42 PMRORoma33$5.12
Bought 18.285713 Yes for Will CD Comerciantes Unidos win on 2026-08-14? at 0.28
- 07:35 PMZEZeroCheng$12.00
Bought 20.338982 No for Will CA Grau win on 2026-08-14? at 0.59
- 07:31 PM0X0xEa20dd3Ed28ae4D255faC8d4e62319950303AF4c-1771059666183$5.90
Bought 10 No for Will CA Grau win on 2026-08-14? at 0.59
- 07:28 PMRORoma33$6.00
Bought 14.285713 Yes for Will CA Grau win on 2026-08-14? at 0.42
Whales Wallets That Are Betting on This Event
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current market consensus on "CA Grau vs. CD Comerciantes Unidos"?
As of the latest update, CA Grau leads the field as the frontrunner with a 52% win probability, followed by Draw (CA Grau vs. CD Comerciantes Unidos) at 29%. Total trading volume for this pool has reached $70.9K, indicating deep liquidity and high trader engagement.
How does the AI Fair Value differ from the live Market Trade Value?
The live Market Trade Value reflects public sentiment, order-book momentum and speculative capital. Our AI Fair Value is computed independently with quantitative models that strip out hype to focus on underlying data. When the two diverge, it creates an EV Gap, flagging where the market may be mispricing an outcome.
Is the market consensus overreacting to any specific outcome?
Yes — our data suggests a notable overreaction around Draw (CA Grau vs. CD Comerciantes Unidos). The crowd has pushed its live Trade Value up to 29%, yet our Fair Value assessment puts its real likelihood at just 24.6%, a negative EV Gap of -4.4% that signals the contract is overpriced.