OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, No IPO by December 31, 2026 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 78.5% chance of winning. 1T–1.25T follows in second place at 5.8%, while 750B–1T sits in third with 4.2%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $1.9M, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• No IPO by December 31, 2026 (78.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, No IPO by December 31, 2026 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 79¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $401.4K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• 1T–1.25T (5.8%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, 1T–1.25T maintains a 5.8% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 6¢.
• 750B–1T (4.2%): Sitting in third place with a 4.2% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward 750B–1T, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~11.6%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes 1.25T–1.5T (4.1%), 1.5T+ (2.5%), and 500–750B (1.7%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like <500B are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.

If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".

Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.

If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome No IPO by December 31, 2026 currently trades at 78.5%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 63%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -15.5%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies 1.5T+ as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 2.5% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 50% — yielding an impressive +47.5% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include <500B (EV Gap: +40.3%) and 500–750B (EV Gap: +40.2%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.