Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, UNRWA is dominating the market with an overwhelming 11% chance of winning. Volodymyr Zelenskyy follows in second place at 9.5%, while Donald Trump sits in third with 7.5%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $21.4M, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• UNRWA (11%): Currently commanding the highest probability, UNRWA is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 11¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $2.0M in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• Volodymyr Zelenskyy (9.5%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Volodymyr Zelenskyy maintains a 9.5% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 10¢.
• Donald Trump (7.5%): Sitting in third place with a 7.5% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward Donald Trump, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~72%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes Yulia Navalnaya (6.5%), Pope Leo XIV (5.1%), and Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani (3.7%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like Narendra Modi are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.

If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome UNRWA currently trades at 11%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 5.9%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -5.1%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies International Court of Justice as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 2.2% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 13.5% — yielding an impressive +11.4% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani (EV Gap: +3.2%) and Donald Trump (EV Gap: +1.1%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.