Will Netflix (NFLX) beat quarterly earnings?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Will Netflix (NFLX) beat quarterly earnings?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Yes is dominating the market with an overwhelming 8,250% chance of winning. No follows in second place at 1,750%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $203, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• Yes (8,250%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Yes is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 8,250¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• No (1,750%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, No maintains a 1,750% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 1,750¢.

As of market creation, Netflix is estimated to release earnings on July 16, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Netflix's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.79 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Netflix reports GAAP EPS greater than $0.79 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.

If Netflix releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.

If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”

Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).

Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.

Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.

Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.

Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.

Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.

Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.