Moscow Oblast Parliament Election: Party Winner

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Moscow Oblast Parliament Election: Party Winner”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, United Russia is dominating the market with an overwhelming 4,250% chance of winning. CPRF follows in second place at 4,250%, while LDPR sits in third with 4,250%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached —, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• United Russia (4,250%): Currently commanding the highest probability, United Russia is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 4,250¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• CPRF (4,250%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, CPRF maintains a 4,250% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 4,250¢.
• LDPR (4,250%): Sitting in third place with a 4,250% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward LDPR, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes A Just Russia (4,250%), New People (4,250%), and Party of Pensioners (4,250%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like Communists of Russia are still attracting notable interest.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Duma of Moscow Oblast, Russia are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Duma of Moscow Oblast as a result of this election.

The number of seats will include all members of the Duma of Moscow Oblast serving as a result of this election, including members elected in a single- or multiple-member constituency or by proportional representation, where applicable.

If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose party list received a greater number of valid votes in the specified region’s proportional representation system. Aggregate votes received in constituencies will have no bearing on resolution in a tie. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name as listed in this market appears first in alphabetical order.

A constituency-elected member will count towards the party they registered to contest the election with. A member elected by proportional representation will count towards the party whose list they were elected from.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. Independents will not count towards any party.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Moscow Oblast and Russia, including the Election Commission of Moscow Oblast and the Central Election Commission of Russia.