"Moana (2026)" Opening Weekend Box Office

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “"Moana (2026)" Opening Weekend Box Office”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, >44m is dominating the market with an overwhelming 4,300% chance of winning. 34-39m follows in second place at 3,900%, while 29-34m sits in third with 3,800%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $357, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• >44m (4,300%): Currently commanding the highest probability, >44m is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 4,300¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $357 in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• 34-39m (3,900%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, 34-39m maintains a 3,900% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 3,900¢.
• 29-34m (3,800%): Sitting in third place with a 3,800% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward 29-34m, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes 39-44m (3,800%), and <29m (3,750%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like 39-44m are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve according to how much "Moana" (2026) Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 10 - July 12) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.

If there is no final data available by July 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.