Will Trump pardon anyone by July 31?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Will Trump pardon anyone by July 31?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Yes is dominating the market with an overwhelming 5,250% chance of winning. No follows in second place at 4,750%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached —, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• Yes (5,250%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Yes is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 5,250¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• No (4,750%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, No maintains a 4,750% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 4,750¢.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.