Portland Timbers vs. San Diego FC
Core Summary
According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Portland Timbers vs. San Diego FC”, traders have formed a strong consensus.
Currently, Portland Timbers is dominating the market with an overwhelming 48.5% chance of winning. San Diego FC follows in second place at 28.5%, while Draw (Portland Timbers vs. San Diego FC) sits in third with 23.5%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $260.9K, reflecting intense industry interest.
Breakdown of Competitive Tiers
To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:
🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader
- Portland Timbers (48.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Portland Timbers is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 49¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $229.9K in volume.
🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers
- San Diego FC (28.5%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, San Diego FC maintains a 28.5% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 28¢.
- Draw (Portland Timbers vs. San Diego FC) (23.5%): Sitting in third place with a 23.5% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward Draw (Portland Timbers vs. San Diego FC), treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.
Comprehensive Order Book & Pricing Dashboard
The table below outlines the full breakdown of contract prices, probabilities, and market depth for all listed outcomes in this prediction pool:
| Rank | Predicted Outcome | Win Probability | Trading Volume | Buy Yes (Cost) | Buy No (Cost) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portland Timbers | 48.5% | $229.9K | 49¢ | 52¢ |
| 2 | San Diego FC | 28.5% | $22.3K | 28¢ | 72¢ |
| 3 | Draw (Portland Timbers vs. San Diego FC) | 23.5% | $20.2K | 24¢ | 77¢ |
Result Rules
This event is for the upcoming MLS game, scheduled for Wednesday, August 19, 2026 between Portland Timbers and San Diego FC.
AI Valuation Analysis: Finding Market Mispricings & EV Gaps
While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.
Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.
Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities
Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:
- The Most Overvalued Outcome Portland Timbers currently trades at 48.5%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 40.6%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -7.9%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
- The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies San Diego FC as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 28.5% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 35.1% — yielding an impressive +6.6% EV Gap.
| Market | Trade Value | Fair Value | EV Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portland Timbers | 48.5% | 40.6% | -7.9% |
| San Diego FCBest EV | 28.5% | 35.1% | +6.6% |
| Draw (Portland Timbers vs. San Diego FC) | 23.5% | 23.2% | -0.3% |
Trade Activities
Here is the trade activities for this event.
Aug 19, 2026
- 08:01 PM0X0x7e092E426EE75607D1fD5a6eD1d9D387fF0dbcc0-1764928343859$3.85
Bought 5 No for Will Portland Timbers vs. San Diego FC end in a draw? at 0.77
- 07:41 PMPUpups10$1.00
Bought 1.2987 No for Will Portland Timbers vs. San Diego FC end in a draw? at 0.77
- 07:41 PMSEsentrio$14.84
Bought 19.27 No for Will Portland Timbers vs. San Diego FC end in a draw? at 0.77
- 07:41 PMPUpups10$1.00
Bought 1.2987 No for Will Portland Timbers vs. San Diego FC end in a draw? at 0.77
- 07:41 PM0X0x92F59e08060C00C9b2Dde0098D272f66C34C52A2-1786873013481$1.54
Bought 2 No for Will Portland Timbers vs. San Diego FC end in a draw? at 0.77
- 07:41 PMSEsentrio$23.93
Bought 31.08 No for Will Portland Timbers vs. San Diego FC end in a draw? at 0.77
- 07:41 PMSEsentrio$5.83
Bought 7.57 No for Will Portland Timbers vs. San Diego FC end in a draw? at 0.77
- 07:41 PMPUpups10$1.00
Bought 1.2987 No for Will Portland Timbers vs. San Diego FC end in a draw? at 0.77
- 07:41 PMSWswisstony$15.46
Bought 20.077921 No for Will Portland Timbers vs. San Diego FC end in a draw? at 0.77
- 07:41 PMSWswisstony$6.22
Bought 8.077921 No for Will Portland Timbers vs. San Diego FC end in a draw? at 0.77
- 07:41 PM0X0x92F59e08060C00C9b2Dde0098D272f66C34C52A2-1786873013481$1.54
Bought 2 No for Will Portland Timbers vs. San Diego FC end in a draw? at 0.77
- 07:41 PMSWswisstony$24.76
Bought 32.155843 No for Will Portland Timbers vs. San Diego FC end in a draw? at 0.77
Whales Wallets That Are Betting on This Event
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current market consensus on "Portland Timbers vs. San Diego FC"?
As of the latest update, Portland Timbers leads the field as the frontrunner with a 48.5% win probability, followed by San Diego FC at 28.5% and Draw (Portland Timbers vs. San Diego FC) at 23.5%. Total trading volume for this pool has reached $260.9K, indicating deep liquidity and high trader engagement.
How does the AI Fair Value differ from the live Market Trade Value?
The live Market Trade Value reflects public sentiment, order-book momentum and speculative capital. Our AI Fair Value is computed independently with quantitative models that strip out hype to focus on underlying data. When the two diverge, it creates an EV Gap, flagging where the market may be mispricing an outcome.
Which outcome represents the highest Expected Value (EV) right now?
Our latest run flags San Diego FC as the most significant mispricing. While the market trades it at a 28.5% implied probability, our AI calculates a Fair Value of 35.1% — an Expected Value gap of +6.6%, making it the premium value play in this pool.
Is the market consensus overreacting to any specific outcome?
Yes — our data suggests a notable overreaction around Portland Timbers. The crowd has pushed its live Trade Value up to 48.5%, yet our Fair Value assessment puts its real likelihood at just 40.6%, a negative EV Gap of -7.9% that signals the contract is overpriced.